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美國能源資訊署(EIA)表示,布蘭特原油期貨價差突破25美元/桶,預示供應緊張和期貨溢價大幅上升。

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-- 美國能源資訊署(EIA)週五發布的一份報告指出,4月初,布蘭特原油現貨價格較期貨合約價格溢價超過每桶25美元,顯示霍爾木茲海峽持續的輸油中斷導致短期供應極度緊張。 報告指出:“近幾週來,布蘭特原油期貨合約溢價居高不下,這可能反映了霍爾木茲海峽關閉後,短期內市場供應極度緊張。” 這項溢價標誌著現貨價格和期貨價格之間的價差擴大,顯示由於買家爭相確保即期貨源,現貨供應面臨嚴重壓力。 反映原油即期交割的現貨價格對霍爾木茲海峽的中斷反應強烈,而反映未來幾個月交割的原油期貨合約價格,由於包含了供應緊張將隨時間推移而緩解的預期,其反應則相對較弱。 布蘭特原油價格指的是一籃北海原油,例如布蘭特原油、福蒂斯原油、奧斯伯格原油、埃科菲斯克原油和特羅爾原油,也稱為BFOET。 據美國能源資訊署(EIA)稱,由於這些原油的產量逐漸下降,大多數布蘭特原油價格評估機構都制定了方法,將以米德蘭原油價格為基準的美國西德克薩斯中質原油納入2023年布蘭特原油價格籃子。 在洲際交易所(ICE)交易的布蘭特原油期貨合約仍然是金融和現貨市場參與者中流動性最強、引用最廣泛的布蘭特原油價格指標。 EIA表示,目前在4月交易的近月合約(代表6月交割)是主要的避險與定價工具,即使在市場劇烈波動期間,其價格走勢與現貨市場走勢有差異。 相較之下,布蘭特原油現貨價格反映的是北海碼頭裝載的實體原油,由標普普氏能源資訊、阿格斯和路透社等定價機構進行評估。 美國能源資訊署(EIA)指出:“買方購買這些原油後,會將其運往港口設施,再由港口轉運至煉油廠加工成成品油。” 在通常情況下,布蘭特原油期貨市場處於現貨溢價狀態,這意味著“布倫特原油現貨價格與近月布蘭特原油期貨價格之間的價差較窄,且往往為正值。” 這表明,即期交割的原油價格高於兩個月後交割的原油價格。 美國能源資訊署表示:“通常情況下,兩種價格會因相似的新聞和市場動態而同步波動。”

Price: $156.43, Change: $-1.05, Percent Change: -0.67%

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