-- 美國能源資訊署(EIA)週二表示,自2月28日霍爾木茲海峽關閉以來,全球天然氣價格顯著分化,歐洲和亞洲基準價格上漲,而美國價格下跌。 據彭博社報道,EIA稱,截至4月24日當週,歐洲液化天然氣(LNG)期貨在產權轉移設施(TTF)的平均價格為每百萬英熱單位(MMBtu)14.80美元,較關閉前水準上漲35%。 在東亞,近月日韓市場(JKM)天然氣價格上漲51%,至每百萬英熱單位16.02美元。相較之下,美國亨利樞紐天然氣價格自2月28日以來下跌了9%,反映出出口成長有限和國內供應充足。 這次中斷影響了每日超過100億立方英尺的LNG供應,約佔全球供應量的20%,主要來自卡達拉斯拉凡天然氣處理廠。美國能源資訊署(EIA)引述Kpler的數據稱,3月1日至4月24日期間,沒有液化天然氣(LNG)船隻通過霍爾海峽。 預計美國出口成長僅能彌補部分供應損失。自2月以來,美國能源部已批准向非自由貿易協定國家新增0.6億立方英尺/日(Bcf/d)的出口能力,其中包括普拉克明斯LNG項目0.5億立方英尺/日(Bcf/d)和厄爾巴島項目0.1億立方英尺/日(Bcf/d)。預計到2026年底,金山口和科珀斯克里斯蒂三期計畫也將新增2.4億立方英尺/日(Bcf/d)的產能。 然而,美國LNG接收站的產能已接近飽和。 3月份LNG出口量平均為17.9億立方英尺/日(Bcf/d),是歷史第二高,僅次於2025年12月的18.4億立方英尺/日(Bcf/d),產能利用率為94%,高於2月份的17.3億立方英尺/日(Bcf/d)和91%。 卡達能源公司於3月4日宣布不可抗力後,供應壓力加劇,迫使進口卡達天然氣80%以上的亞洲買家尋求現貨交易。歐洲天然氣庫存冬季結束時僅為28%,低於五年平均41%,凸顯了補充庫存的必要性。 在亞洲,有限的儲存能力可能使JKM天然氣價格對天氣驅動的需求保持敏感。 儘管全球市場波動,但美國天然氣價格相對穩定。自2月27日當週以來,亨利樞紐天然氣近月期貨價格已下跌9%,而近月價格則跌至2024年10月注氣季開始以來的最低水準。
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