-- 本週，美國股市投資者將關注大型科技公司的財報以及地緣政治動態，尤其是任何結束伊朗戰爭的協議的可能性。 * Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL)、微軟 (MSFT)、亞馬遜 (AMZN)、Meta Platforms (META) 和蘋果 (AAPL) 這七家所謂的「七巨頭」公司中的五家，以及其他數十家公司，將於本周公布季度財報。上週，英特爾 (INTC) 的第一季業績遠超預期，反映了市場對人工智慧相關產品和服務的巨大需求，推動標普500指數和納斯達克綜合指數創下歷史新高。 * 據報道，美國總統唐納德·特朗普週日表示，如果伊朗當局想對話，“可以打電話”，同時重申戰爭“可能很快就會結束”。此前，川普取消了特使週末前往巴基斯坦與伊朗談判和平協議的行程。 * 據Axios新聞報道，由於在巴基斯坦未能舉行任何面對面會談，伊朗提出了一項重開霍爾木茲海峽並結束戰爭的提議。該報道引述了一位美國官員和兩位知情人士的話。然而，Axios的報告指出，該提案包括推遲兩國之間的核談判。 * 根據CNN週一報道，伊朗外長阿巴斯·阿拉格奇在周末訪問巴基斯坦和阿曼等關鍵調解方後，前往俄羅斯與總統弗拉基米爾·普京會晤，討論與美國的衝突。 * 根據芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的FedWatch工具顯示，聯準會週三確定將維持聯邦基金利率區間在3.5%至3.75%不變。 * 本周公布的數據包括個人消費支出價格指數（聯準會首選的3月份通膨指標）、4月份ISM製造業和服務業活動調查、第一季就業成本指數、第一季國內生產毛額初步估算值以及3月份耐用品訂單。
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Hormuz Shipping Near Standstill as Oil Tops $100/bbl, Bloomberg Analysis Says
Dual blockades have halted most Hormuz shipping, leaving only a few Iran-linked vessels moving as oil trades above $100 per barrel, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Monday.Iranian and US blockades have shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the key global energy corridor largely inactive, the analysis said.Only a small number of vessels, mainly tied to Iran, are transiting as most operators avoid the route after last week's escalation, according to the analysis.Iranian gunboats fired on ships while US forces seized two oil tankers last week, sharply increasing risks and reducing traffic through the strait, the analysis said.Three Iran-linked vessels moved out of the Persian Gulf through the strait Monday morning, with no ships entering during the same period, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.Two bulk carriers and one liquefied petroleum gas tanker linked to Tehran exited the Gulf on Monday, extending a period of limited shipping activity, the analysis said.Only a handful of vessels departed Sunday, including an Iran-linked fuel tanker, a bulk carrier, and two regional cargo ships, while a China-linked fuel tanker entered the Gulf, the analysis added.Several Iran-linked vessels remained near the Gulf of Oman after exiting, leaving uncertainty about whether they paused for regional stops or were delayed by the US naval blockade, the analysis said.Ships continuing transit used a narrow northern corridor near Larak and Qeshm islands, a route approved by Iranian authorities for limited passage.The US blockade is prompting vessels to switch off tracking signals, reducing visibility and making it harder to measure actual traffic volumes, according to the analysis.Limited tracking data may lead to higher reported ship numbers later when vessels reappear outside risky areas, showing gaps in real-time monitoring, the analysis noted.Even before recent restrictions, Iran-linked vessels often disabled tracking near Hormuz and reactivated signals near the Strait of Malacca about 13 days from Kharg Island, the analysis said.
Mining & Metals
Deutsche Bank Sees USD/CAD at 1.25 at End 2028 From Current 1.37
Deutsche Bank said it sees USD/CAD at 1.25 at the end of 2028 from the current 1.37 level.At the end of this year, USD/CAD the bank's forecast is for 1.33, while it's 1.27 at the end of 2027 as the Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US dollar (USD).
$$CXY$USD/CAD
US Markets
Oil Prices Rise Amid US-Iran Stalemate
Crude oil prices rose Monday as US-Iran talks appeared to have stalled, even as Tehran reportedly offered a new proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude futures were last up 2.4% at $96.64 per barrel. Brent advanced 3.2% to $108.73.Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi visited Pakistan twice over the weekend, while President Donald Trump called off US officials' previously announced trip to Islamabad.Iran has submitted a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and delay talks on uranium enrichment, Axios reported, citing a US official and two other sources.Uranium enrichment and Iran's control of the crucial waterway have been key sticking points during talks between between Washington and Tehran.A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire between the US and Iran paused American and Israeli strikes on Tehran, but there's no framework yet for a long-lasting peace deal."Oil is trading stronger this morning after attempts to get US-Iran peace talks back on track broke down, erasing hopes for a resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon," ING Bank Head of Commodities Strategy said in a note on Monday. "The lack of progress means the market is tightening every day, requiring oil prices to reprice at higher levels."