-- 週四午盤，美國股市漲跌互現，投資人正在權衡伊朗計劃在4月份裁員人數激增至2009年以來第三高位的消息，以及伊朗對華盛頓重啟和平談判提議的回應。 那斯達克指數上漲0.6%，報25,981.1點，盤中一度觸及26,036.38點的歷史新高。標普500指數上漲0.1%，報7,374.7點，盤中早先曾觸及7,385.02點的歷史新高。道瓊工業指數下跌0.2%，報49,830.5點，此前一度短暫突破50,000點大關。該指數的歷史最高點為50,512.79點。 根據路透社週四引述消息人士和官員的話報道，美國和伊朗正朝著達成一項臨時協議的方向發展，以停止戰爭。德黑蘭方面正在審查一項旨在停止戰鬥但保留最具爭議問題懸而未決的提案。 《華爾街日報》報道稱，兩國正與調解人合作，制定一份旨在重啟霍爾木茲海峽開放談判的框架文件，談判可能下週在巴基斯坦舉行。 受市場預期霍爾木茲海峽將重新開放的影響，西德州中質原油期貨下跌3.2%至每桶92.06美元，布蘭特原油期貨下跌3%至每桶98.20美元。霍爾木茲海峽是全球約五分之一原油運輸的咽喉要道。 經濟新聞方面，Challenger, Gray & Christmas公司週四表示，美國雇主4月宣布裁員8,3,387人，比3月增加38%。這家全球職業安置公司補充說，此前的兩個最高紀錄分別是 2025 年 4 月的 105,441 個裁員職位和 2020 年 4 月的 671,129 個裁員職位。
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Commodities
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Pushing Oil Market Toward Rationing, Wells Fargo Says
The global oil market is moving toward physical shortages and possible demand rationing within the current quarter if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, Darrell Cronk, President of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in a Tuesday note.Cronk estimates cumulative supply losses tied to the conflict and partial closure of the key shipping route have reached about 600 million barrels as of early May. The disruption reflects not only delayed shipments, but also production effectively removed from the system through shut-ins, damage, and deferred output.With inventories and floating storage already significantly reduced, the market has limited remaining capacity to absorb additional shocks. If the strait does not reopen soon, the system may require demand destruction of 4 to 5 million barrels per day within weeks to restore balance.Supply disruptions are expected to take roughly 30 days to fully transmit through the system, meaning physical shortages at the consumer level could lag the initial shock.The most immediate stress is expected in natural gas and in intermediate- and medium-sour crude grades. Downstream impacts would likely emerge first in refined products, particularly diesel and jet fuel, before crude scarcity becomes visible to end users.A likely sequence of disruption would begin with petrochemicals and LPG, followed by diesel, affecting freight, agriculture, and industrial activity, and then jet fuel, which would constrain airline capacity and broader mobility.Import-dependent emerging markets are expected to experience the earliest strain, followed by Europe and other developed regions. Potential policy responses could include fuel allocation systems, airline capacity limits, and emergency consumption controls if shortages intensify.The US is partially insulated due to strong domestic production and Canadian pipeline imports, but global pricing would still transmit higher fuel costs domestically. Elevated energy prices could add to inflation pressures heading into the summer driving season and complicate interest rate expectations.Cronk also highlighted longer-term structural risks, noting that global energy supply chains have become less redundant and more vulnerable than widely assumed. It warned that prolonged disruption to infrastructure in the region could extend recovery timelines well beyond past oil shocks, even if geopolitical tensions ease.
Research
Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold On Shares Of Solventum Corporation
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lower our 12-month price target by $6 to $76, reflecting an 11.6x multiple of our 2026 EPS estimate, in line with the 11.6x historical forward average since spin-off from 3M in 2024. We raise our 2026 EPS estimate to $6.57 from $6.46 and lower our 2027 estimate by $0.03 to $7.03. We think SOLV continues to demonstrate progress with the separation from 3M, having exited over 50% of the transition service agreements with a target to exit over 90% by year-end. In addition, over 75% of system applications have been migrated, according to Q1 earnings commentary. The company maintained the $100M-$120M estimate of tariff headwinds against 2026 earnings. However, this estimate was made based on tariff dynamics prior to the U.S. Supreme Court's recent ruling against the IIEPA tariffs, adding some uncertainty to SOLV's near-term financial outlook, in our view, as the company awaits more information about potential refund dynamics.
$SOLV
International
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for May 7
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 83,387 layoff intentions in April, up from 60,620 in March, but down from 105,441 a year ago.The largest layoff count in April was in the technology sector, which accounted for 33,361 of those intentions, with increased use of artificial intelligence with the most cited reason for layoffs.The New York Fed's inflation expectations survey for April showed an increase in inflation expectations and uncertainty for the next year.Nonfarm productivity rose by 0.8% in Q1 after a 1.6% gain in Q4, reflecting slower output growth and a rebound in hours worked. Released at the same time, unit labor costs rose by 2.3% after a 4.6% gain, with the slower pace of productivity growth only partially offsetting a much slower pace of compensation growth.Construction spending rose by 0.6% in March after a 0.2% decline in February. Private residential construction rose by 1.7%, with single-family construction up 2.7%, multi-family construction up 0.3% and remodeling activity up 0.9%.Private nonresidential building fell by 0.2% and public construction declined by 0.2%.Consumer credit usage jumped by $24.8 billion in March after an $8.9 billion gain in February, with revolving credit use and nonrevolving credit use both rising at a faster rate than in the previous month.Initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 200,000 in the week ended May 2, but the four-week moving average fell by 4,500 to 203,250, a second straight decrease.Insured claims declined by 10,000 to 1.766 million in the week ended April 25.Natural gas stocks rose by 63 billion cubic feet to 2.205 trillion cubic feet in the week ended May 1, up 3.5% from a year earlier and 6.7% higher than the seasonal average for the current week over the previous five years.The Q2 GDP nowcast estimate from the Atlanta Fed is for a 3.7% gain, unrevised from the previous estimate.