-- 週三，受阿聯酋正式退出歐佩克的影響，原油期貨價格上漲超過4%。 布蘭特原油期貨合約上漲超過5%，至每桶116.90美元；西德州中質原油期貨上漲5%，至每桶104.93美元。 這項價格飆升源於阿聯酋正式宣布退出歐佩克和歐佩克+，這對全球石油卡特爾組織造成了歷史性打擊，該決定將於5月1日生效。 阿聯酋能源部長蘇海爾·馬茲魯伊證實，此舉是“政策驅動的演變”，旨在繞過產量配額，重建全球石油儲備，並將該國擴大的產能貨幣化。 荷蘭國際集團（ING）分析師表示：“阿聯酋退出歐佩克對該組織來說是一個重大打擊，但在持續的供應中斷的情況下，短期內對市場的影響不大。顯然，伊朗戰爭後石油供應可能還有更大的上漲空間。” 儘管歐佩克內部結構發生了變化，但波斯灣的不穩定局勢和霍爾木茲海峽的狀況仍然是影響油價的主要因素。 川普總統一方面在社群媒體上聲稱伊朗政府正在崩潰並渴望談判，另一方面又指示助理做好長期海上封鎖的準備。 荷蘭國際集團補充說：“由於沒有跡象表明石油供應即將恢復，我們已上調了今年剩餘時間的石油價格預測。我們現在預計，2026年第二季度ICE布倫特原油均價為每桶104美元，第四季度為每桶92美元。”
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