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美國天然氣期貨價格走低,溫和天氣和強勁供應令價格承壓。

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-- 週三午盤交易中,受強勁的供應狀況和持續高於季節性平均水平的庫存增加以及近期天氣對需求的影響有限,美國天然氣期貨價格延續跌勢。 亨利樞紐天然氣期貨近月合約及連續合約均下跌2.21%,至每百萬英熱單位2.63美元。 價格延續了近期的疲軟態勢,市場越來越受供應基本面而非短期天氣波動的影響。 據NRG能源公司稱,天氣模型持續預測,美國東部約三分之二地區的氣溫將持續低於正常水平,直至5月初,延續了4月下半月開始的降溫趨勢。 然而,分析師警告稱,氣溫偏差預計不足以顯著提振供暖需求或實質地收緊供需平衡。 Trading Economics也持相同觀點,指出考慮到春季的整體季節過渡,5月初氣溫略低於正常水平的預測不太可能大幅增加天然氣消費量。 據NRG能源公司稱,供應方面,美國天然氣產量保持穩定,維持在每日1,060億立方英尺以上。儘管4月份產量有所下降,但過去22天日產量已下降38億立方英尺,初步降至12週低點1083億立方英尺/日,原因是持續低迷的價格促使部分生產商縮減生產規模。 儘管產量有所放緩,但供應仍充足。液化天然氣出口原料氣供應進一步走強,4月份迄今已從3月份的186億立方英尺/日增至189億立方英尺/日,超過了2月份創下的187億立方英尺/日的月度紀錄。 庫存狀況繼續對價格構成額外壓力。交易員預計週四公佈的每週庫存報告將顯示庫存增幅再次高於平均水平,這將是連續第五次高於五年平均水平。 Trading Economics表示,截至4月24日當週,美國天然氣庫存預計比季節性正常水平高出約8%,高於前一周的7%,反映出持續溫和的天氣和疲軟的需求。 市場情緒依然受到強勁產量、庫存上升以及天氣帶來的有限需求支撐的抑制,儘管間歇性寒潮來襲,但天然氣價格仍面臨持續的下行壓力。

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