-- 週五盤後交易中,原油期貨價格走低,此前美國和伊朗代表團抵達伊斯蘭堡,舉行被視為對停火成功和霍爾木茲海峽重新開放至關重要的會談。 近月西德州中質原油期貨下跌2.29%,至每桶95.63美元;布蘭特原油期貨下跌1.63%,至每桶94.36美元。 美國和伊朗談判團隊週五抵達巴基斯坦進行和平談判,但德黑蘭堅持要求先解決一些其認為需要優先解決的問題,這使得周末的會談前景蒙上陰影。 伊朗議會議長穆罕默德·巴格爾·加利巴夫週五在X網站上發帖稱:“雙方共同商定的兩項措施尚未得到落實:一是黎巴嫩停火,二是談判開始前釋放伊朗被凍結的資產。” 週二早些時候,川普總統宣布達成為期兩週的停火協議後,隨即派遣副總統萬斯、特使史蒂夫·威特科夫以及女婿賈里德·庫許納前往巴基斯坦與伊朗官員會面。 週五,川普表示,伊朗人之所以還活著,“唯一的原因就是為了談判”,同時指出德黑蘭唯一掌握的籌碼就是通過封鎖霍爾木茲海峽來施加短期壓力。 川普在社群媒體上發文表示:“伊朗人似乎沒有意識到,除了利用國際水道對世界進行短期勒索之外,他們已經沒有其他籌碼了。他們今天還活著,唯一的原因就是為了談判!” 荷蘭國際集團(ING)的分析師表示,儘管川普對解決這場持續六週的衝突持樂觀態度,但他威脅德黑蘭不要在霍爾木茲海峽收取費用。 儘管停火協議中包含開放霍爾木茲海峽的條款,但伊朗仍持續封鎖霍爾木茲海峽,幾乎完全關閉了該海峽的交通,川普對此表示不滿。 週四,美國總統表示,由於霍爾木茲海峽的交通仍受到很大限制,伊朗應該停止向過境船隻收取通行費。 根據媒體報道,伊朗正在考慮改變對過境船隻徵收通行費的方式,並提議強制要求以伊朗貨幣支付。 最新的航運數據顯示,自4月8日停火生效以來,霍爾木茲海峽的船舶活動略有增加,但流量仍遠低於正常水準。 MarineTraffic的數據顯示,4月8日至9日共有14艘船隻通過了該海峽,其中9艘於4月9日通過。 Kpler的策略師在周五的報告中指出,超過1.3億桶原油和凝析油仍然滯留在約80艘滿載原油的油輪上,其中大部分是超大型油輪(VLCC),包括沙烏地阿拉伯、伊拉克和阿聯酋在內的主要出口國無法運輸貨物。 在供應方面,沙烏地阿拉伯週四表示,伊朗對其能源基礎設施的襲擊導致該國石油產能和東西輸油管的輸送量分別減少了約 60 萬桶/天和 70 萬桶/天。
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