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美国能源信息署称,受供应冲击,欧洲和亚洲天然气价格飙升,而美国天然气价格则下滑。

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-- 美国能源信息署(EIA)周二表示,自2月28日霍尔木兹海峡关闭以来,全球天然气价格出现显著分化,欧洲和亚洲基准价格上涨,而美国价格下跌。 据彭博社报道,EIA称,截至4月24日当周,欧洲液化天然气(LNG)期货在产权转移设施(TTF)的平均价格为每百万英热单位(MMBtu)14.80美元,较关闭前水平上涨35%。 在东亚,近月日韩市场(JKM)天然气价格上涨51%,至每百万英热单位16.02美元。相比之下,美国亨利枢纽天然气价格自2月28日以来下跌了9%,反映出出口增长有限和国内供应充足。 此次中断影响了每日超过100亿立方英尺的LNG供应,约占全球供应量的20%,主要来自卡塔尔拉斯拉凡天然气处理厂。美国能源信息署(EIA)援引Kpler的数据称,3月1日至4月24日期间,没有液化天然气(LNG)船只通过霍尔海峡。 预计美国出口增长仅能弥补部分供应损失。自2月份以来,美国能源部已批准向非自由贸易协定国家新增0.6亿立方英尺/日(Bcf/d)的出口能力,其中包括普拉克明斯LNG项目0.5亿立方英尺/日(Bcf/d)和厄尔巴岛项目0.1亿立方英尺/日(Bcf/d)。预计到2026年底,金山口和科珀斯克里斯蒂三期项目还将新增2.4亿立方英尺/日(Bcf/d)的产能。 然而,美国LNG接收站的产能已接近饱和。3月份LNG出口量平均为17.9亿立方英尺/日(Bcf/d),是历史第二高,仅次于2025年12月的18.4亿立方英尺/日(Bcf/d),产能利用率为94%,高于2月份的17.3亿立方英尺/日(Bcf/d)和91%。 卡塔尔能源公司于3月4日宣布不可抗力后,供应压力加剧,迫使进口卡塔尔天然气80%以上的亚洲买家寻求现货交易。欧洲天然气库存冬季结束时仅为28%,低于五年平均水平41%,凸显了补充库存的必要性。 在亚洲,有限的存储能力可能使JKM天然气价格对天气驱动的需求保持敏感。 尽管全球市场波动,但美国天然气价格相对稳定。自2月27日当周以来,亨利枢纽天然气近月期货价格已下跌9%,而近月价格则跌至2024年10月注气季开始以来的最低水平。

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