-- 周三，受阿联酋正式退出欧佩克的影响，原油期货价格上涨超过4%。 布伦特原油期货合约上涨超过5%，至每桶116.90美元；西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨5%，至每桶104.93美元。 此次价格飙升源于阿联酋正式宣布退出欧佩克和欧佩克+，这对全球石油卡特尔组织造成了历史性打击，该决定将于5月1日生效。 阿联酋能源部长苏海尔·马兹鲁伊证实，此举是“政策驱动的演变”，旨在绕过产量配额，重建全球石油储备，并将该国扩大的产能货币化。 荷兰国际集团（ING）分析师表示：“阿联酋退出欧佩克对该组织来说是一个重大打击，但在持续的供应中断的情况下，短期内对市场的影响不大。显然，伊朗战争后石油供应可能还有更大的上涨空间。” 尽管欧佩克内部结构发生了变化，但波斯湾的不稳定局势和霍尔木兹海峡的状况仍然是影响油价的主要因素。 特朗普总统一方面在社交媒体上声称伊朗政府正在崩溃并渴望谈判，另一方面又指示助手做好长期海上封锁的准备。 荷兰国际集团补充道：“由于没有迹象表明石油供应即将恢复，我们已上调了今年剩余时间的石油价格预测。我们现在预计，2026年第二季度ICE布伦特原油均价为每桶104美元，第四季度为每桶92美元。”
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