-- 周二午盘交易中，原油期货价格暴跌，原因是据报道，美国和伊朗正在考虑就延长为期两周的停火协议进行谈判。与此同时，美国中央司令部已开始强制执行对伊朗港口的封锁，并部分关闭霍尔木兹海峡。 近月西德克萨斯中质原油期货下跌6.69%，至每桶92.51美元；布伦特原油期货下跌4.12%，至每桶89.99美元。 盛宝银行策略师周二在一份报告中表示：“周一的反弹势头消退后，油价回落至每桶100美元以下。有初步迹象表明，华盛顿和德黑兰可能寻求重启此前停滞的和平谈判。”报告还指出，霍尔木兹海峡的封锁已经开始，但短期影响有限。 据报道，美伊第二轮和平谈判正在讨论中，但尚未正式安排。据媒体报道，伊朗正考虑短期暂停经由霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输，以避免试探美国的封锁并破坏新一轮和平谈判。 据报道，特朗普周二暗示，美伊新一轮谈判可能很快在巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡举行。 在产品方面，国际能源署周二表示，中东冲突将导致2026年全球石油需求增长停滞，这将是自新冠疫情爆发以来的首次年度下降。 国际能源署预计，今年全球石油需求将减少8万桶/日，比该机构此前预测的64万桶/日增长减少了73万桶/日。 周一，欧佩克表示，由于持续的中东冲突，3月份阿拉伯湾原油产量大幅下降。伊拉克3月份的石油产量从2月份的420万桶/日下降至160万桶/日，紧随其后的是科威特和阿联酋，两国当月的产量分别下降了140万桶/日和150万桶/日。 欧佩克最新数据显示，沙特阿拉伯的石油产量下降了230万桶/日，从1010万桶/日降至780万桶/日。 与此同时，美国中央司令部周二表示，在对霍尔木兹海峡实施封锁的第二天，没有船只突破封锁。该封锁向东延伸至阿曼湾和阿拉伯海。 荷兰国际集团(ING)的策略师表示，尽管遭到封锁，仍有两艘油轮试图经由伊朗海岸线附近的航线离开阿拉伯湾。 美国海军表示，超过1万名陆军人员，以及十几艘军舰和数十架飞机，正在执行封锁任务。 SEB Research首席新兴市场策略师埃里克·迈耶森周一表示，如果外交方面没有取得进展，霍尔木兹海峡将继续保持事实上的封锁状态，这将推高油价。
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