-- 周三，生物燃料原料期货收跌，此前大豆市场一度触及一个月来的最高水平，随后回落。 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）5月大豆期货合约收跌0.85%，报每蒲式耳11.64美元；CBOT 5月豆油期货合约收跌0.64%，报每磅71.68美分。 周二，纽约商品交易所（Nymex）6月乙醇期货合约收涨0.26%，报每加仑1.90美元。 DTN分析师雷特·蒙哥马利表示，大豆市场在本周中期遭遇获利回吐。 他在一份每日报告中指出：“由于技术性抛售以及过去24小时内霍尔木兹海峡冲突升级可能引发的看跌担忧，抛售压力在交易时段内加剧。” 蒙哥马利补充道：“此外，化肥贸易限制和农场收购价大幅上涨表明，人们正在从化肥密集型谷物转向油籽。” 根据美国能源信息署周三发布的报告，美国每周乙醇产量略有下降。 截至4月17日当周，美国乙醇日均产量为104万桶，低于上周的112万桶/日，与去年同期的103万桶/日基本持平。四周平均产量为109万桶/日，高于去年同期的103万桶/日。 中西部地区乙醇日均产量为97.9万桶，低于前一周的107万桶/日。四周平均产量为103万桶/日，高于去年同期的97.7万桶/日。 国内乙醇库存本周结束时为 2690 万桶，高于一周前的 2670 万桶，低于一年前的 2550 万桶。
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Crude Oil Prices Rise on Stalled U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
Crude oil prices rose on Monday as talks to end the war between the U.S. and Iran remain frozen and flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz continue to be disrupted.Brent crude at last look gained 2.7% to US$108.17/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2.4% to $96.63/barrel. The U.S. and Iran appear to still be far apart on issues including Iran's nuclear ambitions and the reopening of the strait, Reuters said in a Monday report."The diplomatic stand-off means that every day 10-13 million barrels of oil fail to get to the international market, worsening an already tight oil balance. Therefore, there is only one direction for oil prices to go," Reuters quoted PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga as saying.Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter oil price forecasts to $90/barrel for Brent and $83/barrel for WTI, citing reduced output from the Middle East, the report said.
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Commodities
Japan Resorts to More Coal, Nuclear During Energy Crisis Sidelines Renewables, Says IEEFA
Japan is leaning on higher nuclear output and ramping up use of coal in power generation as contingency measures in the face of the global energy crisis, but these measures are simultaneously smothering renewables, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said on Monday.Temporary increased use of coal was decided upon to reduce the need for now-scarce LNG while the restart of some nuclear power plants is also providing additional resilience to supply shocks which have hit Asian nations hardest.IEEFA said this risks displacing domestic renewable energy which can supply just as much energy security but lower cost and it could also increase curtailment and undermine investment in more renewables, up-ending progress on decarbonization.Most of Japan's coal imports, about 71%, come from Australia, making it a safe option that reduces exposure to disrupted Middle Eastern logistics, the IEEFA report noted.But a shortage of diesel for plant operations at J-Power's Matsuura 2 gigawatt coal-fired power station slashed its output by 50% while the JFE Steel Fukuyama facility was halted over a shortage of heavy oil, underscoring that coal is not fully detached from oil and gas's geopolitical risk.Japan typically imports 4 million tons of LNG that pass through the Strait of Hormuz each year, representing about 6% of its total imports.As of March, 15 of Japan's 36 nuclear reactors were operating, as that sector recovers from the multiple impacts of the Fukushima disaster.They generate a combined 37 GW. Bringing the remainder online could cut Japan's LNG needs by 12.5 million tonnes, IEEFA said. Regulatory changes in early April were introduced, facilitating more restarts.Backing up its argument that more coal and nuclear, both less flexible power sources, could increase curtailment of renewables, IEEFA said that each nuclear restart in Japan has been followed by a reduction in renewables generation.Curtailments in Japan have risen to 1.9 terrawatt hours by 2023, up from 100 GWh in 2018. In the first half of 2025, curtailments were faster still at 1.7 terrawatt hours for a six-month period.The fact that output from coal and nuclear can not rapidly be increased or slowed means it can be difficult to make room for renewable supply on the grid when its output rises.IEEFA said that limitations in Japan's grid infrastructure is an additional constraint that limits absorption of renewable power and led to a situation in March where it curtailed renewables while importing power from abroad.IEEFA suggests that the addition of battery storage to the grid could go some way to boosting its flexibility.Curtailment of renewables output has another inherent problem in that it leads to a less favourable economic case for later additions of zero carbon generation capacity, the report said, all the more so because Japan does not compensate renewables suppliers for curtailments, a practice common in Europe.Developers are adding battery storage as a work-around to that, securing contracts that remunerate battery-discharged electricity instead of directly generated then consumed electricity.The addition of batteries adds to project costs however at a time when investor interest has yet to turn into large scale deployment, with erosion of revenue support measures a further deterrent, IEEFA said.
Research
UOB Kay Hian Upgrades Hana Microelectronics to Buy from Hold; Price Target is THB38
Hana Microelectronics (BKK:HANA) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of 25.44 Thai baht, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
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