-- 周二盘后交易中,原油期货价格暴跌,原因是据报道,美伊第二轮和平谈判可能在数日内重启,这缓解了市场对霍尔木兹海峡封锁仍将导致供应长期中断的担忧。 近月西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格下跌7.08%,至每桶92.07美元;布伦特原油期货价格下跌4.18%,至每桶95.11美元。 据报道,美伊第二轮和平谈判正在讨论中,预计将在伊斯兰堡举行,届时为期两周的停火协议将于下周到期。 据报道,特朗普周二暗示,美伊新一轮谈判可能很快在巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡举行。 SEB Research首席新兴市场策略师埃里克·迈耶森周一表示,如果外交方面没有取得进展,霍尔木兹海峡将继续保持实际上的关闭状态,这将推高油价。 据报道,伊朗也在考虑短期暂停经由霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输,以避免试探美国的封锁并破坏第二轮和谈。 国际能源署在其月度报告中指出,中东能源基础设施遭受袭击以及霍尔木兹海峡的关闭,导致了历史上最严重的石油供应中断,3月份的日均石油供应损失高达1010万桶。 周二,美国中央司令部表示,在封锁霍尔木兹海峡一天后,仍没有任何船只能够突破封锁。目前,封锁范围已向东延伸至阿曼湾和阿拉伯海。 澳新银行高级大宗商品策略师丹尼尔·海恩斯表示:“然而,霍尔木兹海峡的持续关闭增加了石油供应恢复所需时间更长的风险,如果此次中断在几周内结束,恢复时间将会大大延长。” 海恩斯表示,阿拉伯湾地区约一半的石油产能已被关闭,重启将是一个漫长而艰难的过程。 与此同时,美国财政部表示,将不再续签对伊朗石油为期30天的制裁豁免,该豁免将于本周末到期。此举可能进一步挤压全球能源市场。 财政部在社交媒体X上发文称:“允许出售已滞留在海上的伊朗石油的短期授权将在几天后到期,且不会续签。” 这项豁免由财政部于3月20日发布,允许约1.4亿桶已在海上的伊朗原油运抵买家,主要目的地为亚洲。 在成品油方面,国际能源署周二表示,中东冲突将导致2026年石油需求增长停滞,这将是自新冠疫情爆发以来的首次年度下降。 国际能源署预计今年全球石油需求将减少8万桶/日,比该机构此前预测的消费量将增长64万桶/日减少了73万桶/日。
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