-- 周二盘后交易中,美国天然气期货价格守住涨幅,从早盘跌势中收复失地。市场对地缘政治信号的变化以及淡季期间国内供应稳定的状况做出反应。 亨利枢纽天然气近月合约和连续合约均上涨0.78%,至每百万英热单位2.71美元。 价格走势与整体能源市场走势一致。Barchart指出,受霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭的影响,原油价格上涨,引发了天然气期货的空头回补。尽管基本面疲软,但地缘政治背景仍提供了上涨动力。 然而,天气预报限制了涨幅。商品气象集团表示,最新预测显示气温偏高,预计美国中西部地区气温将持续高于平均水平,直至4月25日。 Gelber & Associates补充道,其对中西部和中南部地区未来两周的气温预测较此前估计升高了约20华氏度,但其他地区略微偏低的预期抵消了部分升温幅度。 基本面依然显示供应充足。美国能源信息署表示,在4月至10月的注气季开始时,美国本土48州的天然气库存量估计约为18900亿立方英尺,比去年同期水平和五年平均水平均高出约3%。 Gelber & Associates的数据显示,供应依然强劲,美国本土48州的总产量为每日1132亿立方英尺,主要得益于每日1078亿立方英尺的干气产量和每日54亿立方英尺的加拿大净进口量。需求相对疲软,主要受居民和商业消费量190亿立方英尺/日(Bcf/d)的拖累。 Barchart援引彭博新能源财经(BNEF)的数据称,周二美国天然气产量为1103亿立方英尺/日(Bcf/d),同比增长2.3%。需求量估计为708亿立方英尺/日(Bcf/d),同比增长4.7%;液化天然气净流入出口终端量达到200亿立方英尺/日(Bcf/d),环比增长1.5%。
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BMO on The Day, Week Ahead in Canada
The US dollar (USD) is softer (BBDXY -0.25%) with the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) firmer (CAD per USD -0.44%) early Monday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).The Bank of Canada will release its policy statement on Wednesday, together with the new Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The BoC is expected to keep rates unchanged, noted the bank.The BoC will also release its latest MPR with updated estimates for potential growth -- in the low-1% range -- and the neutral rate, seen in the 2.25%-to-3.25% range, stated BMO.Also on this week's Canadian docket there is Tuesday's Spring Economic Update from the Canadian government, which will refresh the estimates published in the November FY26/27 budget. There seems to be some fiscal upside compared with the budget's original $65.4 billion deficit, pointed out the bank.On Thursday, BMO expects real gross domestic product growth to accelerate another tenth to 0.2% month over month in February, in line with Statistics Canada's flash estimate. The March flash estimate will be one to watch as it will capture the initial reaction to the outbreak of the Iran war.