-- 周二盘后交易中,受持续高于正常水平的气温预测影响,美国天然气期货价格连续第五个交易日下跌。 近月亨利枢纽天然气期货合约和连续基准天然气期货均下跌1.29%,至每百万英热单位2.593美元。 周二,欧洲天然气价格也大幅下跌,跌幅超过8%,原因是需求疲软以及市场预期与霍尔木兹海峡相关的供应中断可能会缓解。 在美国,天气仍然是主要驱动因素。近期预测显示,美国大部分地区天气温和,这使得市场对天然气需求的预期较为低迷。 “国内市场的主要驱动因素仍然是近期气温的悲观预期。由于预计4月底前天气温和,市场并不担心会出现早期制冷需求激增的情况,而任何显著的供暖负荷都已成过去,”《能源买家指南》指出。 “在市场观察到天气变化或基础供应收紧产生切实影响之前,价格走势可能仍将横盘整理或下跌。” NatGasWeather.com周二表示,美国大部分地区气温将高于正常水平,包括南部和东海岸,而西部部分地区和北部各州气温仍将偏低。预计整体需求将在周六前保持低迷,周日至周二将回升至中等水平。 由于产量居高不下,预计疲软的消费将导致库存增加。据《华尔街日报》援引市场评论称,在即将发布的EIA报告之后,库存盈余预计将扩大至约1500亿立方英尺。 另据Barchart援引彭博新能源财经(BNEF)的数据报道,周二美国天然气需求为670亿立方英尺/日,同比下降1.4%。天然气产量为 1108 亿立方英尺/日,同比增长 2.2%;同时,天然气净流入液化天然气出口终端的流量增至 197 亿立方英尺/日,环比增长 3.7%。
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