-- 周五,在美伊会谈于巴基斯坦举行前,油价稳定在每桶100美元以下,市场正寻求明确周末在伊斯兰堡举行的会谈能否达成长期和平协议。 周五,西德克萨斯中质原油上涨0.5%,至每桶98.25美元;布伦特原油上涨0.9%,至每桶96.88美元。 本周早些时候,美国和伊朗同意停火两周,暂停了这场蔓延至中东并切断了关键的霍尔木兹海峡海上运输的战争。停火协议宣布后,油价周三出现2020年以来最大单日跌幅。 现在,市场焦点转向伊斯兰堡,预计华盛顿和德黑兰的官员将于周六在那里举行会晤。巴基斯坦斡旋达成的停火协议目前看来仍在维持,但此次会谈的结果仍存在不确定性。 据美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)周五报道,以色列与伊朗支持的真主党在黎巴嫩的冲突仍在继续。伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫表示,只有在黎巴嫩实现停火并释放被冻结的伊朗资产后,谈判才会开始。 加拿大皇家银行资本市场指出,铀浓缩和解除对伊朗的制裁是谈判的关键症结所在。 加拿大皇家银行全球大宗商品策略主管赫利玛·克罗夫特在周五发送的一份电子邮件中写道:“在周末即将举行的伊斯兰堡停火谈判之前,我们重点强调铀浓缩和解除制裁这两个症结所在,它们将是谈判的关键争议点。” 克罗夫特表示,华盛顿坚持的零浓缩要求导致此前几轮谈判破裂,而国会很可能会反对任何解除对伊朗制裁的举措。 作为停火协议的一部分,华盛顿要求立即开放霍尔木兹海峡,而德黑兰则表示,在与伊朗当局协调的前提下,将允许“安全通行”该水道。 克罗夫特表示:“无论谈判结果如何,霍尔木兹海峡的开放都将是一个漫长的过程,因为许多国家和公司会抵制与伊朗协调通行和付款事宜。”
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