-- 周一，尽管有报道称德黑兰提出了重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的新方案，但由于美伊谈判似乎陷入僵局，原油价格上涨。 西德克萨斯中质原油期货最新上涨2.4%，至每桶96.64美元。布伦特原油期货上涨3.2%，至每桶108.73美元。 伊朗外长赛义德·阿巴斯·阿拉格奇周末两次访问巴基斯坦，而美国总统唐纳德·特朗普取消了此前宣布的美国官员访问伊斯兰堡的行程。 据Axios报道，伊朗已提交一份关于重新开放霍尔木兹海峡并推迟铀浓缩谈判的方案。该报道援引了一位美国官员和另外两位消息人士的话。 铀浓缩和伊朗对这条关键水道的控制一直是华盛顿和德黑兰谈判中的关键症结所在。 在巴基斯坦斡旋下，美国和伊朗达成停火协议，暂停了美国和以色列对德黑兰的空袭，但目前尚未形成长期和平协议的框架。 荷兰国际集团（ING）大宗商品策略主管周一在一份报告中指出：“由于重启美伊和平谈判的努力失败，人们对霍尔木兹海峡能源运输短期内恢复的希望破灭，今天上午油价走强。缺乏进展意味着市场每天都在收紧，迫使油价在高位重新定价。”
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Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Buy Opinion On Shares Of Ameriprise Financial, Inc.
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We keep our 12-month target price of $550, valuing AMP shares at 12.5x our 2026 adjusted EPS estimate of $43.84 (raised by $1.34) and at 11.7x our 2027 EPS estimate of $46.90 (raised by $0.70). This compares to the three-year average forward multiple of 12x and peer average of 15.5x. AMP posted Q1 2026 adjusted operating EPS of $11.26 vs. $9.50, a 19% rise that topped our $10.12 estimate and $10.21 consensus view. Revenue growth of 11% exceeded our forecast and our 6%-10% growth forecast for 2026, while pretax adjusted operating margins expanded 130 bps to 28% on revenue gains and cost containment efforts. We now see revenue growth of 7% to 12% in 2026 and 2027. AMP also continued its substantial capital return program, returning $936M to shareholders in Q1 (70% of adjusted operating earnings) and $3.4B in 2025 (88% of earnings). Currently trading at 10.9x our 2026 EPS estimate, and with some decent revenue and earnings momentum, we view the shares as undervalued versus peer and historical averages.
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Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Sell Opinion On Shares Of P&g
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lower our 12-month price target by $7 to $136, based on 19.5x our FY 26 EPS estimate and below the company's five-year average forward P/E multiple of 23.6x, reflecting our view of increased competition, higher commodity prices, and ambitious growth targets. We maintain our FY 26 and FY 27 EPS estimates of $6.96 and $7.27, respectively. P&G posted normalized FQ3 EPS of $1.59 vs. $1.54 in the year prior and $0.03 above consensus estimates. Net sales rose to $21.2B, representing a 7% increase that included a 4%-pt tailwind from FX. Organic sales advanced 3%, driven equally by a 2% increase in volume and 1% improvement in pricing, while mix remained neutral. Profitability metrics came under pressure during the quarter as gross margin contracted by 150 bps to 49.5%. On a core basis, gross margin declined 100 bps to 50.0%, impacted by 180 bps of unfavorable mix, 100 bps of reinvestments, 50 bps of higher tariff costs, and 10 bps of unfavorable commodity costs. We remain at Sell on shares.
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Oil & Energy
Crude Market Faces "Cruel Summer" as War-Driven Supply Shock Ripples West, RBC Says
The Middle East conflict is tightening global energy markets and raising the risk of a "cruel summer" for consumers, as constrained supply collides with peak seasonal demand and policymakers struggle to contain the fallout, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note on Sunday.RBC analysts said the conflict, now in its third month, has displaced up to 1 billion barrels of crude and refined products from global markets, marking what some analysts describe as the largest supply shock in modern history.However, despite intermittent ceasefire signals and market optimism around a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, negotiations between Iran and the US remain deadlocked.Iran has refused to abandon uranium enrichment, while the US has yet to secure meaningful concessions, with recent talks failing to materialize.RBC said for weeks the Trump administration has leaned on messaging that the conflict could end soon, helping cap near-term oil prices. However, market participants said that the narrative may be masking the severity of the supply crunch and delaying necessary demand destruction."The price response has been unusually muted given the scale of the disruption," RBC analysts said, adding that subdued prices risk fostering complacency among policymakers and consumers alike.The analysts said even in a best-case scenario, the return of Middle Eastern supply is expected to be slow. Damage to oil fields, export terminals, and logistics networks could take 3 to 6 months to repair, RBC said, with longer timelines likely if subsurface infrastructure has been severely damaged.Uncertainty over the true extent of the damage remains high, with satellite imagery offering only partial insights and on-the-ground assessments still pending.Meanwhile, global inventories are drawing down as supply remains constrained. RBC analysts expect crude and refined product prices to rise further into the summer, driven by steady demand and tightening fundamentals.Refinery margins are also set to strengthen, as limited product availability pushes up fuel prices. However, the dynamic carries risks, as higher costs could eventually trigger demand destruction and weigh on the global economy.Though Asia has been the epicenter of the crisis, the effects of the Iranian conflict are being felt in Europe, where energy import costs have surged.The European Union has spent an additional 24 billion euros ($28.1 billion) on fossil fuel imports since February, with aviation among the hardest-hit sectors.Major carriers, including Lufthansa, KLM, and Scandinavian Airlines, have collectively canceled tens of thousands of flights due to high fuel costs and route constraints. Some airlines said that fuel supplies are only secured through mid-May, raising the prospect of further disruptions.The conflict is also accelerating shifts in consumer behavior. Electric vehicle adoption is rising rapidly, with battery-electric registrations in Europe jumping in early 2026, while second-hand EV sales have surged in key markets.On the demand side, RBC said Asian governments are taking aggressive steps to curb energy consumption.South Korea has extended fuel price controls, while India has cut industrial LNG supplies by 20%. Bangladesh has introduced fuel rationing, and countries including the Philippines, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka have reinstated remote work policies and driving restrictions.China, the world's largest energy importer, appears better positioned to absorb the shock, having built up strategic reserves. However, its reliance on Middle Eastern supply, which accounts for more than half of its imports, leaves it exposed to prolonged disruption.RBC analysts said that the combination of steady demand, constrained supply, and limited price response could amplify the eventual market correction.The analysts said any additional disruptions, including refinery outages, export restrictions, or further attacks on energy infrastructure, could exacerbate shortages just as summer demand peaks.