-- 羅森伯格研究公司在周五公佈數據後表示,加拿大2月份零售銷售額表現“穩健”,但低於預期,環比增長0.7%,而此前預期為0.9%。 羅森伯格指出,剔除汽車產業後,至關重要的零售銷售額環比成長也低於預期,為0.5%,而先前預期為0.8%。 羅森伯格表示,儘管低於預期,但這些數據仍穩健,加拿大零售銷售整體表現強勁。問題在於,這些數據“過時”,因為它是在伊朗衝突及其引發的汽油價格衝擊之前統計的。 該公司指出,預計未來幾個月的成長將大幅放緩。 儘管如此,3月份的初步估計環比增長“穩健”,達到0.6%,這意味著第一季整體有望實現8.5%的年化增長。羅森伯格補充道,這將是自2024年第四季以來最快的增速,並為加拿大週四公佈的月度國內生產總值(GDP)數據提供了強勁的支撐。 鑑於汽油價格衝擊,羅森伯格對3月份的數據能否達到如此強勁的水平略有懷疑,但第一季整體零售銷售顯然「穩健」。 如果正如羅森伯格所預期的那樣,加拿大經濟將在春季遭遇與能源衝擊相關的成長放緩,那麼沒有任何跡象表明加拿大央行需要升息。戰前通膨趨勢線一切正常,而對利率最敏感的經濟部門「遠未達到健康水準」。
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