-- 原油価格は月曜日に上昇し、ブレント原油は3週間ぶりの高値をつけた。これは、停滞する和平交渉とホルムズ海峡の閉鎖期間の長期化により、世界の原油供給が逼迫したためだ。 期近のWTI原油先物価格は0.6%上昇し1バレル94.95ドル、ブレント原油先物価格は0.9%上昇し1バレル106.25ドルとなった。 サクソバンクのアナリストは、「ホルムズ海峡が事実上閉鎖されたままで、中東全域に混乱が拡大し、原油、燃料、ガスから金属、肥料、石油化学製品に至るまで、重要な物資の供給が逼迫し続けているため、原油価格は上昇基調を維持している」と述べた。 「和平交渉再開に向けた取り組みが停滞する中、ブレント原油価格は3週間ぶりの高値で取引されている。イラン側は核交渉を後日に延期するよう提案したと報じられている。」 ゴールドマン・サックスとイタリアのエネルギー大手Eniが予測を大幅に引き上げたことで、市場は重要なエネルギー輸送路を巡る長期にわたる対立を織り込み始めている。 ゴールドマン・サックスは、第4四半期のブレント原油価格見通しを従来の80ドルから90ドルに上方修正し、現在の平均取引価格88ドルを上回ったとアナリストは指摘している。 イタリアの大手エネルギー大手Eni(E)は、市場が紛争の期間を過小評価していると警告し、2026年のブレント原油価格予測を83ドルに引き上げた。 先週は、市場心理が大きく転換し、紛争終結への期待が高まった。ブレント原油価格は週間で17%上昇し、WTI原油価格も13%以上急騰した。
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