-- 由於通膨壓力導致支出放緩,美國第一季經濟成長低於華爾街預期。經濟學家表示,通膨壓力可能會持續給消費者帶來壓力。 根據美國經濟分析局週四公佈的初步數據顯示,全球最大經濟體美國第一季實際國內生產毛額(GDP)以年率計算成長2%。彭博社總結的一項調查顯示,市場普遍預期增幅為2.3%。 上一季度,實質GDP小幅成長0.5%。 第一季消費者支出成長率從前三個月的1.9%放緩至1.6%,但仍高於華爾街預期的1.4%。數據顯示,非耐久財支出轉為負值,服務支出成長也出現放緩。 牛津經濟研究院首席美國經濟學家邁克爾·皮爾斯在發給的電子郵件中表示:“受人工智能建設和減稅政策逐步顯現的推動,(第一季度)經濟核心依然穩健。這些因素將繼續推動今年剩餘時間的經濟增長,但能源價格飆升將給原本強勁的經濟表現蒙上一層陰影。” 受美以伊戰爭的影響,能源價格飆升,霍爾木茲海峽實際上已被封鎖。儘管華盛頓和德黑蘭近期達成停火協議,衝突暫時中止,雙方尚未達成永久停火協議。 蒙特利爾銀行首席美國經濟學家斯科特安德森在一份報告中指出:“如果未來幾個月通膨壓力持續上升,消費者將越來越難以應對。” 美國經濟分析局(BEA)數據顯示,私人投資季增從2.3%加速至8.7%。進出口均轉正。 3月季度個人消費支出物價指數上漲4.5%,高於前三個月的2.9%。剔除食品及能源價格後,指數從2.7%加速至4.3%。 美國經濟分析局(BEA)週四在另一份報告中表示,美國3月通膨率創下2022年年中以來的最快成長速度。 皮爾斯表示:「能源價格上漲也是3月份通膨飆升的原因之一,並將推動未來幾個月整體通膨率接近4%。」「聯準會更擔憂的趨勢是,由於人工智慧需求激增以及能源價格傳導至核心價格,電子產品價格通膨走強,這將使核心個人消費支出通膨率維持在接近3%的今年水準。」 聯準會週三維持基準貸款利率不變,稱中東衝突加劇了美國經濟前景的不確定性。
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