-- 独立研究机构CFRA向提供了以下研究报告。CFRA分析师的观点总结如下：我们维持SMCI的目标股价为16美元，市盈率为5.5倍，基于2027财年（截至6月）的每股收益预期（2.88美元），低于SMCI三年平均市盈率（约16倍），原因是该公司面临声誉风险和利润率压力。我们将2026财年的每股收益预期上调0.35美元至2.58美元，将2027财年的预期下调0.11美元至2.88美元，并将2028财年的预期目标定为2.92美元。我们认为，SMCI近期与出口管制违规事件的关联（美国商务部工业安全局的调查仍在进行中）可能会导致需求下降，而第三季度18%的销售额未达预期（归因于客户工厂的准备情况）加剧了这种担忧。我们也担心供应商的供货问题（尤其是在内存短缺的情况下），并指出SMCI第三季度应付账款环比减少100亿美元（导致运营现金流出66亿美元），这表明客户变得更加谨慎。目前净债务为75亿美元，而第二季度末为7.87亿美元，我们认为BIS的调查正在增加SMCI的利息成本，这将开始反映在利润上。我们认为第三季度毛利率的改善（9.9%，环比增长360个基点）主要是由于产品组合的变化（最大客户占销售额的27%，而第二季度为63%），而非结构性改善。
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