-- 独立研究机构CFRA向提供了以下研究报告。CFRA分析师的观点总结如下：我们将目标股价上调40美元至325美元，约为2027年每股收益10.78美元（高于此前预测的9.48美元）的30倍；2026年每股收益也从7.60美元上调至9.34美元。第一季度业绩表现优异：AWS同比增长28%，较2025年第四季度增长4个百分点，年化营收达到1500亿美元，而三年前为850亿美元。我们预计未来增长速度将进一步加快，AWS有望在2026年底实现30%以上的增长率，这得益于公司3640亿美元的积压订单（环比增长49%），该数字尚未计入近期宣布的超过1000亿美元的Anthropic项目订单。增长主要得益于定制芯片（Trainium）和CPU基础设施（Graviton）需求的激增，后者反映了人工智能正持续向推理和智能体工作负载转型。零售方面，随着亚马逊不断深化其在日常必需品和食品杂货领域的渗透，其销量增长已恢复至疫情前的水平。亚马逊第一季度创下13.1%的营业利润率纪录，我们预计随着亚马逊Leo相关生产/发布成本的资本化，其利润率将在2026年下半年进一步提升。
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Oil & Energy
US Oil Update: Futures Tumble Amid Heightened US-Iran Tensions
Crude oil futures edged lower in midday trading on Thursday on reports that President Donald Trump would be briefed on expanded military options in Iran amid a deepening standoff between the US and Iran.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures tumbled by 2.27% to $104.37 per barrel, while Brent futures dropped by 3.51% to $113.88/bbl.US crude exports surged last week as global buyers turned to American producers for alternative supplies amid the ongoing Middle East supply disruptions. The latest data from the Energy Information Administration shows that US crude stockpiles dropped by 6.2 million barrels to 459.5 mmbbls in the week ended April 24."This is a record high, surpassing the previous record of 5.63m b/d in February 2023," ING strategists said in a note Thursday, noting that these strong export volumes are increasingly tightening up the US domestic market.The inventories are now about 1% above the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.President Trump is reviewing new military options while maintaining a strict naval blockade on Iranian ports, signaling a hardline stance amid stalled negotiations.The US President is reportedly set to receive a briefing from the head of US Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, on plans for a series of new military strikes on Iran to force it to negotiate a deal to end the conflict.Iranian authorities, meanwhile, have vowed to respond with "long and painful strikes" on US positions if Washington renewed attacks, while reasserting control over the Strait of Hormuz.Iran Revolutionary Guards said that any new US military aggression would trigger previously undisclosed Iranian capabilities, including advanced smart targeting systems."You have seen the fate of your bases in the region; you will also see the fate of your warships", IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi was quoted as saying.Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, also said that Tehran would eliminate what he described as the enemy's abuse of the waterway under the new management of the strait, as his country moves to assert its control over the key chokepoint.On the supply front, the global oil market is undergoing a fragile rebalancing nearly two months after disruptions in the Hormuz slashed crude flows, with limited system flexibility keeping supplies tight.Data analytics firm Kpler said about 60 days into the disruption, oil flows through the key chokepoint remain close to minimal levels, falling from about 20 million barrels per day to about 1 million b/d in April.Traffic through the Hormuz remains limited and uneven, with crossings continuing to show a sharp directional imbalance, according to Kpler. As of April 29, a total of 12 vessel crossings were recorded, up by four day-on-day, with all ships moving west-to-east and no return traffic observed.
Australia
Market Chatter: Citigroup Pares Back Physical Trading in Industrial Metals
Citigroup (C) is stepping back from physical trading in industrial metals and has notified a number of staff from the commodities team about potential redundancies, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing an employment tribunal in London.Citi said in a January letter that physical metals trading will no longer be a "core business activity," as the bank warned about 11 employees that they were at risk of redundancy and has let go a number of them since then, according to the report.Citi did not immediately respond to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $128.19, Change: $+0.58, Percent Change: +0.45%
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Sectors
Update: Gold Rises as the Dollar and Yields Fall After a Report Showed U.S. Inflation Continues to Run Hot
(Updates prices.)Gold traded higher midafternoon Thursday as the dollar dropped after a report showed a key U.S. inflation measure rose last month while first-quarter gross domestic product rose less than expected.Gold for June delivery was last seen up US$71.30 to US$4,632.80 per ounce, remaining within the US$200 range it has traded within for the past month.The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, rose 0.7% in March from the prior month, up from 0.4% fin February, but matching expectations according to Marketwatch. Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy, rose 3.2% annualized, up from 3.0% in February and again matching expectations.The bureau also issued its first estimate of first-quarter U.S. GDP growth, reporting the measure rose at a 2.0% pace, up from 0.5% in the prior quarter and under expectations for a 2.2% rise.Gold's gain comes despite expectations higher interest rates are on the way as the war on Iran pushes up inflation. The Federal Reserve's policy committee on Wednesday ended its two-day meeting on Wednesday leaving rates unchanged, but signaled hikes may be on the horizon as inflation climbs."Gold has attracted fresh demand despite rising bond yields and a firmer dollar following Wednesday's FOMC meeting, where rates were left unchanged, but several members signalled a desire to remove the easing bias as the Iran war continues to cloud the economic outlook," Saxo Bank wrote.Still, the dollar was sharply lower early following the economic data, with the ICE dollar index last seen down 0.81 points to 98.15. Treasury yields also fell, with the yield on the U.S. two-year note last seen down 7.1 basis points to 3.894%, while the 10-year note was paying 4.397%, down 3.7 points.
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