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研究快讯:CFRA维持对Strategy股票的持有评级

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-- 独立研究机构CFRA向提供了以下研究报告。CFRA分析师的观点总结如下:我们假设2026年比特币收益率为10%(年底持有99.7万枚比特币),目标比特币价格为8.5万美元,市净率(比特币/企业价值溢价)为1.20倍,则将12个月目标价上调26美元至198美元。我们认为传统的估值倍数并不适用,因此将重点放在融资活动和市净率预估上,以确定目标价。基于新增资金、比特币平均价格和市净率假设,我们预计MSTR将在2026年收购28万至35万枚比特币。管理层已宣布计划从被动持有型投资模式转向主动管理型投资模式。MSTR目前持有价值22亿美元的比特币,即使亏本出售也能支付优先股股息,与新筹集的资金相比,股权稀释程度更低。如果mNAV跌破1.2倍,管理层愿意出售BTC,并将所得款项用于回购股票。管理层今年迄今已筹集117亿美元资金,超出我们的预期。我们预计,除非mNAV增长至1.4倍-1.6倍,否则STRC仍将是新筹集资金的主要渠道。我们预测2026年每股收益为20美元(低于此前预测的30美元),2027年每股收益为40美元(与此前预测持平)。

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