-- 独立研究机构CFRA向提供了以下研究报告。CFRA分析师的观点总结如下:我们将FM的12个月目标价下调5加元至40加元,基于2027年EBITDA预期值的8.0倍EV/EBITDA,低于FM过去三年平均预期EV/EBITDA 10.6倍,但与同行平均水平8.3倍接近。我们将2026年每股收益预期下调0.33美元至0.53美元,2027年每股收益预期下调0.22美元至1.95美元。FM近期面临中东局势紧张带来的成本压力,其中燃料成本占总成本的15%,C1指引可能面临每磅0.25美元的上涨压力(燃料成本上涨0.20美元,克瓦查上涨0.10美元,部分被黄金价格下跌0.05美元所抵消)。然而,该公司基本面依然强劲,已获准处理Cobre Panama矿堆(预计2026年产铜3万至4万吨),Kansanshi S3矿的产能超出设计产能25%,Enterprise矿的镍产量也创下历史新高。FM通过发行15亿美元、利率为6.375%的10年期债券,并将到期日延长至2036年,从而增强了其资产负债表。Taca Taca项目(前10年年产铜29.1万吨,内部收益率19.3%)在资产负债表状况足以支持项目开发后,将提供显著的长期增长选择。
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US Crude Stocks Set for Second Weekly Draw as Balances Tighten, Macquarie Says
Weekly US crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is forecast to show a 5-million-barrel draw for the week ending May. 1, Macquarie strategists said in a weekly note on Tuesday, after a larger-than-expected draw of 6.2 million barrels a week ago.Crude runs are projected to increase by about 100,000 barrels per day, though the timing of seasonal maintenance turnarounds remains a key variable.Crude exports are projected to rise modestly by about 400,000 b/d, while imports are expected to dip by 400,000 b/d."Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance, particularly as exports remain elevated," Macquarie strategists said.Macquarie projected that domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, will drop by 300,000 b/d for the week ended May. 1, while stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decrease by 5.2 million bbls.On the products front, gasoline inventories are forecast to fall by 400,000 bbls, distillate inventories by 3.8 million bbls, while jet fuel stocks are projected to rise by about 200,000 bbls.Macquarie forecasts the combined implied demand for gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel at about 14.6 mmb/d.