-- 獨立研究機構CFRA向發布了以下研究報告。 CFRA分析師總結如下:我們將IBM的目標股價下調37美元至296美元,市盈率為23倍(基於2026年預期每股收益),高於IBM三年平均市盈率(約20倍),主要受人工智能利好因素和軟體業務增長的推動。我們將2026年預期每股盈餘調高0.07美元至12.86美元,並將2027年預期每股盈餘上調0.03美元至13.90美元。第一季業績對人工智慧競爭威脅的反應喜憂參半。空頭將專注於軟體業務(不計匯率影響)成長率從第四季的11%放緩至8%,儘管Confluent的收購提前完成(為軟體業務成長帶來約50個基點的提振),但該業務板塊2026年的預期成長速度僅略微從10%提升至10%以上。 一些分析師對諮詢業務的預期更高,並指出其1%的銷售成長較為溫和,這表明新興人工智慧工具給COBOL現代化帶來了壓力。我們則持較樂觀的態度,認為諮詢業務的業績具有韌性,儘管宏觀經濟持續承壓,但銷售額和簽約量均保持增長,預計2026年增長率仍將接近5%。軟體方面,年度經常性收入(ARR)再次年增10%(與前期持平),紅帽業務也令人鼓舞地從第四季的8%反彈至10%。
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