-- 獨立研究機構CFRA向提供了以下研究報告。 CFRA分析師總結如下： AR公司2026年第一季調整後每股收益為1.15美元，高於市場預期的0.78美元，超出預期0.01美元。調整後EBITDAX達7.23億美元，年增32%，主要得益於強勁的價格和創紀錄的39億立方英尺/日（Bcfe/d）產量（年增13%）。天然氣平均售價為5.57美元/千立方英尺（Mcf），較紐約商品交易所（NYMEX）價格溢價0.53美元。淨產量受惠於天然氣銷售年增21%，達到26億立方英尺/日（Bcf/d）。我們認為，以28億美元收購HG（已於2026年2月完成）是關鍵的催化劑。管理階層預計第二季現金成本將降低15%，並帶來整合效益。 AR預計2026年天然氣產量為41億立方英尺當量/日（年增20%），綜合現金成本為2.25-2.35美元/千立方英尺當量（Mcfe），中位數較前一年下降0.10美元。我們估計AR在2026年以3.91美元/百萬英熱單位（MMBtu）的價格持有45%的對沖保護，2027年持有30%的對沖保護。這既能提供下行支撐，又能維持現貨價格上漲的空間。鑑於卡達液化天然氣產能下降以及AR第一季23億立方英尺/日的液化天然氣相關銷售額，我們認為美國天然氣的增產壓力正在增加。這支持了我們對天然氣價格的樂觀預期。
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