-- 獨立研究機構CFRA向提供了以下研究報告。 CFRA分析師總結如下：阿聯酋於上週五退出歐佩克，成為該組織第三大成員國，原油日產量為364萬桶，僅次於伊拉克（450萬桶/日）和沙烏地阿拉伯（1,040萬桶/日）。退出歐佩克使阿聯酋能夠靈活地提高產量，超出目前的配額，但波斯灣的封鎖限制了油輪通過霍爾木茲海峽的通行。我們認為，這次退出的影響可能要到2027年才會顯現，因為阿聯酋的原油出口量為275萬桶/日，但其哈布山-富查伊拉輸油管道的輸油能力僅為150萬桶/日，這意味著新增的原油出口量依賴於霍爾木茲海峽的通行。阿聯酋的退出可能會加劇2026-2027年原油價格的波動。我們認為2026年原油供應將大幅短缺，這將使未來兩季持有現貨交易的勘探與生產公司受益，因為油價將保持在高位。我們預計2027年油價暴跌的可能性很高，屆時更多原油將流入市場，油價飆升也將對經濟造成嚴重衝擊。即使是像FANG這樣主要面向美國市場的公司，仍會受到全球原油價格波動的影響。
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