-- 獨立研究機構CFRA向提供了以下研究報告。 CFRA分析師總結如下：ABI公佈2026年第一季有機營收成長5.8%，高於市場普遍預期的3.0%，這主要得益於每百升營收成長4.5%以及銷量成長0.8%（而非預期的下降0.5%）。每股盈餘（EPS）為0.97美元，高於市場普遍預期的0.89美元及上年同期的0.81美元，創下公司史上第一季最佳業績。我們認為，ABI旗下超級品牌的強勁成長勢頭，尤其是科羅納啤酒在本土市場以外16%的成長，帶動了總收入成長8.2%，這充分展現了其強大的競爭優勢，並在75%的市場中實現了市場份額的成長。 管理層維持2026年EBITDA成長預期為4-8%，與其中期展望及市場普遍預期的5.1%一致，預計資本支出為35-40億美元。 「啤酒之外」業務部門營收成長37%，成長加快，毛利率儘管因行銷投入增加導致EBITDA利潤率下降15個基點，但仍提升76個基點至56.6%。鑑於ABI強大的全球產品組合和穩健的市場地位，我們對ABI的成長前景充滿信心。
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US Markets
Australia's Central Bank Raises Key Rate Again in Near-Unanimous Vote
Stubborn inflation and sharply higher fuel prices pushed Australia's central bank to raise its cash rate by another 25 basis points to 4.35% on Tuesday, marking its third increase to borrowing costs this year.Inflation was "already too high before the Middle East conflict" and will likely remain above the 2% to 3% target range for longer due to the recent surge in fuel and related commodity prices, the Reserve Bank of Australia said.The rate decision was in line with market expectations and followed the previous week's headline consumer price index reading of 4.6% for the 12 months to March, a jump up from the 3.7% annual rate in February."Higher fuel prices are adding to inflation and there are indications that this is likely to have second-round effects on prices for goods and services more broadly," the central bank said. It expects the unemployment rate "to increase a bit" alongside a slowdown in household and business spending this year.Tuesday's decision was almost unanimous, as eight policymakers voted for the hike and only one voted to leave the rate unchanged at 4.1%. The previous policy meeting in March was more closely contested, with five votes for an increase and four to hold the rate steady.Under its baseline forecast, which assumes a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict and a decline in fuel prices, the central bank expects the domestic economy's growth to slow to 1.3% by the close of the year. However, it also warned of plausible scenarios where inflation is higher and activity lower than expected.Speaking at a press conference following the policy meeting, central bank Governor Michele Bullock said the effects of the US-Iran conflict will linger through the year even if it is resolved quickly. She added that the resulting oil shock will worsen the country's housing crisis.ANZ said the tone of the central bank's post-meeting statement was more hawkish than it expected."While the post-meeting statement did note that the board has 'raised the cash rate three times,' there was not the clear opening to a pause in June that we expected," ANZ said.
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International
RBA's Post-Meeting Tone More Hawkish Than Expected, Says ANZ
ANZ said the tone of the Reserve Bank of Australia's post-meeting statement was more hawkish than expected, with no clear opening to a pause in June despite the board noting it has "raised the cash rate three times," according to a Tuesday note by the bank.The bank said this does not necessarily mean another rate increase is a done deal, but shows the board's preference to keep its options open, adding that the subsequent press conference carried more of the "pause-related language" ANZ had expected in the policy statement.ANZ said its expectation remains that the board will pause in June, with the 5:4 vote cast in March suggesting a strong preference among certain board members for moves in Statement on Monetary Policy meetings.By August, without a swift resolution to the Middle East conflict and a resumption of oil flows, ANZ expects Australian activity data to look soft enough to keep the RBA on hold, though risks now appear more skewed toward a rate hike in August than before this meeting, given the ongoing focus on capacity pressures and the more hawkish tone, the bank added.ANZ said RBA staff appear to be anticipating a 1% trimmed mean inflation outcome in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, which would make it difficult for the board to hold rates steady in August in the absence of soft activity data.ANZ said it forecasts a slightly lower trimmed mean outcome and sees risks to the RBA's second-quarter unemployment rate forecast skewed toward a higher reading, it added.
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US Markets
Australian Household Spending Up 1.6% in March Amid Middle East Oil Shock
Australian household spending surged in March at its quickest pace in two years, driven by soaring oil prices from the Middle East conflict.Seasonally adjusted household spending climbed 1.6% month on month, a sharp acceleration from the previous month's 0.3% uptick, although slightly below the 1.8% growth forecast by markets, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday."Household spending rose strongly in March, driven by a 5.1% rise in transport costs as fuel prices climbed in response to the conflict in the Middle East," ABS head of business statistics Tom Lay said.Fuel costs peaked in late March after conflict in Iran disrupted global oil markets, particularly through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.This surge also pushed up public transit usage as commuters avoided driving private vehicles, while food spending rose 1.7% due to consumers stockpiling goods over supply chain fears.Commonwealth Bank senior economist Ashwin Clarke noted that higher fuel costs should trigger an easing in spending growth later this year."We do expect a further easing in spending growth over the course of the year," Clarke said. "The expected slowing in household consumption is needed for the economy to slow and move closer to balance."ANZ analysts shared the cautious outlook, with economist Aaron Luk and head of Australian economics Adam Boyton saying that "Despite a relatively solid outcome for the first quarter of the year, we continue to anticipate a softer pace of spending growth ahead."Some analysts believe the central bank has room to combat inflation because household spending has remained resilient despite the oil shock.Capital Economics said the Reserve Bank of Australia will have no "major qualms about tightening policy further," as household spending is "holding up well in the face of the oil price shock", Bloomberg News reported.The RBA on Tuesday raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% amid higher inflation, reacting to inflationary pressures stoked by the Iran conflict.
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