-- 獨立研究機構CFRA向提供了以下研究報告。 CFRA分析師總結如下：我們將CVE的評級從“持有”下調至“賣出”，因為同行認為WTI原油價差擴大的速度將超過WCS原油價差擴大的速度，並且隨著時間的推移，全球經濟需求下滑的可能性越來越大。 CVE迄今已從中受益，但價格下行波動仍存在風險。我們將12個月目標價下調至35加幣。這相當於我們2027財年EBITDA預期值的5.5倍。 CVE的長期平均本益比為5.7倍。我們將2026財年每股收益預期上調至3.89加幣（+0.42），2027財年每股收益預期上調至2.80加幣（+0.05）。 CVE 將利用油價的「暴漲」積極降低成本，然而，同行營運效率更高（SU），並且可以根據股東意願將所有超額自由現金流返還給股東（SU，IMO），而 CVE 目前只能返還 50% 的超額自由現金流。
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Sector Update: Energy Stocks Fall Late Afternoon
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International
Scotiabank Sees Bank of Canada Rate Hikes, Flags Inflation Risks And CAD Impact
Scotiabank said it is doubling down on its forecast for the Bank of Canada to begin tightening monetary policy over the second half of the year, citing rising inflation risks and stronger economic drivers.From 2.25% at present, the bank said it thinks the policy rate will rise to 3% by year-end.Scotiabank Economics has forecast hikes by the end of 2026 since last November. One more was added in March in response to supply chain and commodity shocks related to the war with Iran."The BoC just opened the door wider to a rate change." It said "... if the economy evolves broadly in line with the base case, changes in the policy rate can be expected to be small." But in which direction?" the bank said in its latest foreign exchange outlook."A rate cut scenario that hinged upon higher US tariffs against Canada was presented. It lacks credibility in our view. One reason is that it would prompt excessive easing of financial conditions. With markets priced for 50-75bps of hikes this year, a 25bp cut would strike that out, add the cut, probably price 1-2 more, and result in short-term market rates plunging by 100bps or more," said Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics.The effect would tank the Canadian dollar, driving more import price pressures, said Holt adding that the bank remains "cautiously optimistic" toward trade negotiations."A hike scenario was also presented by the BoC and conditioned on higher-for-longer energy prices. Yet it's not just energy prices as evidenced by the BoC's own measure. Canada is importing higher incomes through higher prices for many of the products it sells with trickle down effects into domestic incomes and more resulting spending. Smaller deficits driving increased federal spending represent one such example equal to 1/2% of NGDP this year and 1/4% next year; the BoC's communications did not have time to incorporate this added fiscal stimulus that further merits higher rates. Inflation risk has pivoted higher," noted Holt.
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US Markets
Roblox Growth to Moderate Near Term Due to Age-Check Rollout, UBS Says
Roblox's (RBLX) growth will likely decelerate in the near term amid engagement headwinds tied to a mandatory age-check rollout, UBS Securities said in a Friday client note.The video game platform reported a first-quarter loss late Thursday as bookings fell short of consensus estimates. The company implemented an age-check feature for accessing chat, a move that slowed new user acquisition and hampered growth, Roblox said in a shareholder letter.In addition, management tempered growth expectations for full-year revenue and bookings."We became the first large online gaming platform to introduce age checks to access chat on a global basis," Chief Executive David Baszucki told analysts during an earnings call late Thursday.The stock plunged 18% ahead of market close on Friday, and is down 44% so far this year."We still see Roblox as a beneficiary of secular trends in gaming and expect platform enhancements to support its ability to drive user growth/spend over time," UBS analysts including Christopher Schoell wrote in the note. "That said, we remain neutral given expectations for moderating near-term growth and engagement headwinds from age verification/regulatory shifts."UBS slashed its price target for Roblox shares to $49 from $74.For the second quarter, Roblox guided to 8% to 12% bookings growth, well below Wall Street's 29% estimate, according to the brokerage."We believe platform enhancements/content breadth will support Roblox's ability to drive user growth long-term, particularly in overseas markets where headroom remains," Schoell said. "That said, we see a transition period in the coming quarters with 49% of global users still remaining unverified, (versus) 55% last (quarter)."Price: $45.51, Change: $-9.75, Percent Change: -17.64%
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