-- 週二，美國股指期貨大多走低，交易員密切關注美伊談判進展，並等待聯準會最新的利率決議以及新一輪企業財報。 標普500指數下跌0.2%，那斯達克指數下跌0.6%，而道瓊工業平均指數在盤前交易上漲0.3%。那斯達克指數和標普500指數週一連續第二個交易日創下收盤新高，而道瓊斯指數則收跌。 根據彭博社報道，白宮新聞秘書卡羅琳·萊維特週一表示，唐納德·特朗普總統與國家安全官員審查了伊朗提出的重新開放霍爾木茲海峽的新方案。萊維特說，川普已就伊朗問題明確劃定了“紅線”，並將“很快”處理此事。 根據Axios報道，德黑蘭近日提交了一份提案，要求重新開放霍爾木茲海峽並推遲鈾濃縮談判。該報道引述了一位美國官員和另外兩位消息人士的話。 西德州中質原油（WTI）在開盤前上漲3.5%，至每桶99.73美元；布蘭特原油上漲2.8%，至每桶111.28美元。 聯準會貨幣政策委員會（MOMC）將於今日召開利率會議，並於明日公佈決議。根據芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的FedWatch工具顯示，市場普遍預期聯準會將連續第三次維持基準貸款利率不變。 麥格理集團首席經濟學家大衛·多伊爾表示，由於聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）的決議不太可能出人意料，市場預計將關注政策聲明以及主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的會後講話。 「鑑於高油價已持續近兩個月，未來的政策指引可能會有所調整，」他在周一發給的電子郵件報告中表示。 「這與3月份政策調整有限的情況形成鮮明對比。我們仍然認為，下一步的政策舉措很可能是加息，最有可能的時間是在2027年上半年。” 美國公債殖利率在盤前交易呈現上升趨勢，兩年期公債殖利率上漲1.9個基點至3.82%，十年期公債殖利率上漲1.8個基點至4.35%。 可口可樂（KO）、標普全球（SPGI）、Spotify Technology（SPOT）、聯合包裹服務公司（UPS）、宣偉公司（SHW）、希爾頓全球酒店集團（HLT）和通用汽車公司（GM）等公司計劃在盤前發布最新財報。 Visa (V)、T-Mobile US (TMUS) 和星巴克 (SBUX) 將在收盤後公佈財報。 社群媒體公司 Snap (SNAP) 股價在盤前小幅下跌 0.2%，此前該公司股價在前一交易日上漲了 7.3%。計算軟體公司 Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) 股價下跌 0.4%，此前該公司公佈了最新的季度業績。甲骨文 (ORCL) 股價下跌 5.5%。 週二的經濟數據包括：美國東部時間上午 9 點公佈的 2 月凱斯-席勒房價指數和聯邦住房金融局房價指數。 4 月的消費者信心指數和里士滿聯邦儲備銀行製造業指數將於上午 10 點公佈。 黃金價格下跌 1.4% 至每盎司 4,626 美元，比特幣價格下跌 0.2% 至每盎司 76,604 美元。
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Sectors
Sector Update: Tech Stocks Fall Tuesday Afternoon
Tech stocks fell Tuesday afternoon with the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) dropping 1.8% and the State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) slumping 4.5%.The Philadelphia Semiconductor index shed 3.7%.In corporate news, OpenAI recently missed its own targets for new users and revenue, the Wall Street Journal reported late Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. Tech bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) fell 2.2%, Broadcom (AVGO) dropped 4.7%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shed 2.7%, Oracle (ORCL) lost 3.8%, and Intel (INTC) declined 1.7%.Lam Research (LRCX), Applied Materials (AMAT) and KLA (KLAC) were among the chip equipment companies believed to have received a letter last week from the US Department of Commerce ordering them to halt certain tool shipments to China's second-largest chipmaker Hua Hong, Reuters reported. Lam declined 3.5%, Applied Materials dropped 5.5%, and KLA shed 3.5%.Spotify Technology (SPOT) reported stronger-than-expected Q1 profit, but its premium subscriber growth and outlook disappointed investors. The stock fell 13%.
$AMAT$AMD$AVGO$INTC$KLAC$LRCX$NVDA$ORCL$SPOT
Oil & Energy
US Natural Gas Update: Futures Tick Higher on Shifting Weather Outlooks, Mixed Demand Signals
US natural gas futures edged higher in midday trading on Tuesday as updated weather models pointed to a split demand picture, with colder late-season conditions across the Northern US boosting heating demand while warmer forecasts in the South supported cooling load expectations.The front-month Henry Hub contract rose 0.81% to $2.72 per million British thermal units, while the continuous contract increased 0.04% to $2.55/MMBtu.NatGasWeather.com said models added several total degree days since last Friday, driven mainly by colder shifts and additional heating degree days. "Weather patterns are not nearly as bearish as they have been, and likely viewed as neutral, if not a touch bullish," the firm said Monday.The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that the colder forecast should limit weekly inventory builds from reaching or exceeding 100 billion cubic feet through the second week of May.Fundamentals, however, remain loose. Trading Economics noted that elevated spring temperatures have already pushed storage levels to about 8% above seasonal norms. The US Energy Information Administration's last report showed inventories rising by 103 Bcf, well above expectations, last year's 77 Bcf build, and the five-year average increase of 64 Bcf.On the supply side, NRG Energy said dry gas production has softened slightly over the past week, averaging about 106.3 Bcf per day as gross output edged lower. It added that while production has eased from recent highs, supply remains comfortably above demand.Trading Economics separately said output has declined about 4.1 Bcf/d over the past 18 days to an 11-week low of 108.1 Bcf/d, as major producers scaled back in response to persistently low prices.Demand has also weakened with seasonal moderation. NRG Energy said total US consumption averaged near 101.7 Bcf/d over the week, with declines led by residential and commercial usage and only limited offset from power burn.LNG export feedgas has remained relatively steady, holding in a tight range around 18.8 to 19.0 Bcf/d, according to NRG Energy.
Oil & Energy
Update: UAE's OPEC+ Exit Weakens Cartel's Market Grip, Raises Volatility Risks, Analysts Say
(Updates with analyst comments from Macquarie in grafs 19-22.)The UAE has withdrawn from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, delivering a significant blow to the group's ability to manage global oil markets and raising questions about the future of coordinated supply policy, Rystad Energy strategists said on Tuesday.The Gulf state, which produces about 4.8 million barrels per day and has ambitions to raise output further, has been among a handful of members capable of adjusting supply to respond to market shocks."OPEC and OPEC+ have only ever been as strong as members' willingness to hold barrels back," Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said in a market note on Tuesday. "Losing a member with significant spare capacity takes a real tool out of the group's hands."The UAE's departure strips the producer group of one of its core mechanisms of influence, spare capacity that can be deployed to offset disruptions or withdrawn to support prices.Leon said the move weakens the group's ability to manage supply imbalances over time.Rystad said the impact on prices may be limited by ongoing geopolitical risks in the near term, including the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which continues to inject uncertainty into global supply flows.However, the longer-term implications are more profound. The consultancy said that with less spare capacity concentrated within the group, OPEC+ may find it difficult to calibrate output and maintain price stability.The shift comes as global oil demand approaches a potential peak, altering the incentives for low-cost producers. Rather than holding back production under quota systems, countries with available capacity may prioritize maximizing output and protecting market share.The move could place greater pressure on Saudi Arabia to shoulder a larger share of production adjustments to stabilize markets, a role Rystad analysts said may become difficult to sustain on its own.Saxo Bank strategists said the UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ marks a shift in global oil policy at a time when the ongoing Iran conflict has disrupted global energy flows and drained both commercial and strategic crude inventories worldwide."The UAE is seizing the opportunity to exit OPEC and remove production constraints that have limited its ability to utilize growing capacity," said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.The UAE has steadily expanded its production capacity in recent years, driven by upstream investments led by Abu Dhabi's Adnoc Group. Saxo Bank said that before output fell last month to 2.2 million b/d, production had climbed to about 3.6 mmb/d.The country's current crude production capacity stands at about 4.85 mmb/d, with a target of reaching 5 mmb/d by 2027.Meanwhile, Sparta Commodities analysts said the producer cartel is facing renewed questions over its long-term cohesion after the UAE's departure, though the immediate impact on global oil balances remains muted."For the short-term, it means very little in terms of oil balances with the Strait of Hormuz closed," the analysts said, adding that the implications are more in the longer-term if and when the OPEC+ group gets back to its prior role in the market.Over the longer term, the UAE is expected to increase production to about 4.5-4.8 million b/d, up from its OPEC+ quota of about 3.4 million b/d. Sparta said the shift could introduce additional barrels into the market, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.With the exit, Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures, said the UAE is positioning itself to ramp up oil production as it seeks greater autonomy outside the constraints of OPEC+.Flynn said that the UAE has long been constrained by an outdated production baseline set at about 3.2 million b/d in about 2018. However, the Gulf state has since made significant investments in upstream capacity, lifting its production potential to exceed 5 million b/d in the coming years.Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie, said the UAE's exit reflects a broader shift in producer strategy."At some point in every country's lifecycle, it's time to move on," Dwivedi said in an emailed response to.He added that there has not been a "big response" in markets so far. "Eventually the market will be forced to deal with oil production growth from an unsanctioned Iran, a rejuvenated Venezuela and an unshackled UAE," the strategist said.Dwivedi added he does not expect the announcement to drive any meaningful near-term moves in the crude forward curve or spot prices. "It could make oil balances more bearish over the next year or two, but not right away," he said.