-- 週一早盤,油價重回每桶100美元上方,此前美國表示,在巴基斯坦舉行的周末和平談判未能達成結束敵對行動的協議後,將封鎖伊朗港口。 5月交割的西德州中質原油期貨價格上漲7.18美元,至每桶103.75美元;6月交割的布蘭特原油期貨價格上漲7.00美元,至每桶102.20美元。 伊朗和美國之間的直接和間接談判均未能達成協議,伊朗拒絕接受美國要求其停止鈾濃縮計畫的要求。作為對談判失敗的回應,美國表示將封鎖伊朗港口,並阻止任何向伊朗支付通行費的船隻通過霍爾木茲海峽。根據《華爾街日報》報道,伊朗則威脅要攻擊波斯灣和阿曼海的港口。 未能達成和平協議導致霍爾木茲海峽對油輪航行關閉,繼續阻斷波斯灣國家每日20%的石油需求。這將是史上最大的供應衝擊,而即將到來的夏季需求旺季可能會加劇這一局面。 加拿大皇家銀行資本市場全球大宗商品策略及中東和北非研究主管赫利瑪·克羅夫特寫道:“美國和伊朗之間高風險的談判再次因華盛頓堅持伊朗不進行鈾濃縮的要求而陷入僵局,這為持續六週的戰爭進一步升級以及夏季駕車高峰期到來前供應中斷的持續埋下了伏筆。” 「在缺乏談判協議的情況下,白宮實際上只剩下兩個選擇:要么採取戰略撤退,讓伊朗實際控制海峽;要么採取軍事升級,旨在‘摧毀德黑蘭的收費站’。”
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