-- 週四早盤,由於市場對美伊可能達成和平協議、重新開放被封鎖的霍爾木茲海峽、結束史上最大石油供應危機的預期升溫,油價再次下跌。 6月交割的西德州中質原油(WTI)價格下跌3.06美元,至每桶92.02美元;7月交割的布蘭特原油價格下跌3.02美元,至每桶98.25美元。 此前,WTI原油價格週三已下跌7%。這次下跌正值市場對美伊和平協議的樂觀情緒高漲之際。 《華爾街日報》報道稱,兩國正與調解人合作,制定重啟談判的框架。雙方最快下週在巴基斯坦就川普政府提出的14點諒解備忘錄(MoU)展開會談。 目前尚無法確定兩國會談能否達成協議,從而迅速重新開放霍爾木茲海峽。霍爾木茲海峽是波斯灣國家出口的咽喉要道,這些國家供應全球20%的石油日需求。自2月28日戰爭爆發以來,已有超過1,000艘船隻被困在海灣,石油、成品油、液化天然氣、化肥和其他大宗商品的供應日益短缺。 《衛報》報道稱,美國總統川普暗示達成協議“極有可能”,但伊朗官員則稱該諒解備忘錄是“美國的願望清單”。 「我們不應過分樂觀地認為很快就能達成協議。伊朗財政部發言人昨天予以反駁,稱美國框架中的部分內容是『雄心勃勃但不切實際的提議』。迄今為止,德黑蘭的願望清單——即其5月2日提出的14點回應——仍然沒有改變:全面解除制裁、解凍國家資產、約2700億美元的賠償/重建融資(這是結束衝突的『唯一途徑』),以及建立一個新的霍爾木茲海峽多邊機制,以有效承認伊朗對該海峽的主權,」SEB Research的大宗商品分析師奧勒‧赫瓦爾比耶寫道。
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