-- 週二早盤,由於伊朗與美國的談判前景不明朗,油價小幅走低。 5月交割的西德州中質原油期貨價格下跌0.29美元,至每桶89.32美元;6月交割的布蘭特原油期貨價格下跌0.13美元,至每桶95.35美元。 這次下跌正值市場預期兩國將達成協議結束敵對行動之際,因為為期兩週的停火協議將於明天到期。然而,伊朗尚未公開確認是否會派遣談判代表前往巴基斯坦與美國會面,儘管《華爾街日報》報道稱,伊朗已告知調解人,將派出一個團隊參加談判。 週一,油價飆升,此前伊朗於上週五短暫開放後又再次關閉霍爾木茲海峽,而美國則繼續封鎖伊朗港口,並扣押了一艘伊朗貨船。霍爾木茲海峽的關閉阻礙了波斯灣國家的石油出口,這些國家供應了全球20%的石油日需求。 盛寶銀行指出:「在周三停火協議到期前,與美國在伊斯蘭堡舉行的潛在會談,是在經歷了周末緊張局勢再度升級、各種相互矛盾的信號之後進行的,目前霍爾木茲海峽實際上已經關閉。能夠通過的船隻數量有限,但這並未緩解全球能源市場持續緊張的局面,即經肥經濟短缺,導致柴油、航空煤油、化下柴油、 海峽關閉推高了石油現貨價格,亞洲各國競相爭奪即期供應,同時也引發了人們對高油價以及波斯灣國家供應的成品油、液化天然氣和其他大宗商品價格上漲將推高通膨並導致利率上升的擔憂。 「金融市場押注美伊衝突能夠及時解決,避免未來出現嚴重的物資短缺。但海峽關閉的每一天,都讓我們離物資短缺和價格大幅上漲的痛苦局面更近一步,」SEB Research首席大宗商品分析師比雅恩·希爾德羅普寫道。
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