-- 美国经济分析局周四公布的第三次估算数据显示,第四季度美国经济增速低于此前预期,主要原因是消费者支出增速放缓。 实际国内生产总值(GDP)在12月当季的年化增长率为0.5%,低于第二次估算的0.7%。彭博社汇总的一项调查显示,市场普遍预期该增长率将维持不变。 根据政府数据,最终数据显示,第四季度增速为三个季度以来最低,而上一季度则为4.4%。该报告因去年美国联邦政府停摆而推迟发布。 以个人消费支出衡量的消费者支出增长率从此前公布的2%修正为1.9%,华尔街此前也预期该数据不会改变。 牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家迈克尔·皮尔斯在发给的电子邮件中表示:“第四季度GDP的下调并非重大隐患,因为其主要原因是库存波动较大。国内生产总值(更能反映潜在经济活动的指标)和私营企业国内生产总值显示,去年底美国经济核心仍在健康扩张。” 第四季度总体个人消费支出(PCE)通胀率维持在2.9%不变。官方数据显示,剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心PCE通胀率也维持在2.7%不变。 报告预测,2025年实际GDP增长率为2.1%,与此前预测一致。 美国经济分析局(BEA)周四发布的另一份报告显示,由于实际消费者支出小幅增长,美国2月份通胀率环比加速。分析师预计,中东冲突的溢出效应将加剧价格压力。
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