-- 周一盘前，受伊朗提出重开霍尔木兹海峡新方案的报道影响，美国股指期货涨跌互现。此前有报道称，美伊核谈判陷入僵局。 道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌0.1%，标普500指数期货持平，纳斯达克指数期货上涨0.2%。 据Axios援引一位美国官员和另外两位消息人士的话报道，伊朗已向美国提交了一份新的方案，旨在重开霍尔木兹海峡并结束冲突，同时将核谈判推迟到以后举行。 据Truth Social周日发布的一篇文章称，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普取消了美国特使史蒂夫·威特科夫和贾里德·库什纳前往巴基斯坦与伊朗进行谈判的行程，并表示“如果他们想谈，只需要打个电话就行了！” 本周财报季拉开帷幕，威瑞森通信公司（Verizon Communications，股票代码：VZ）公布了第一季度调整后盈利和营收双双增长。 预计本周将公布季度财报的公司包括Visa (V)、Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL)、微软 (MSFT)、亚马逊 (AMZN)、Meta Platforms (META)、苹果 (AAPL) 和伯克希尔哈撒韦 (BRK.A, BRK.B)。 油价上涨，近月全球基准北海布伦特原油上涨1.1%，至每桶100.19美元；美国西德克萨斯中质原油上涨0.7%，至每桶95.08美元。 达拉斯联邦储备银行将于美国东部时间上午10:30公布制造业指数。 负责制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）计划于美国东部时间周三下午2点发表声明。
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Hormuz Shipping Near Standstill as Oil Tops $100/bbl, Bloomberg Analysis Says
Dual blockades have halted most Hormuz shipping, leaving only a few Iran-linked vessels moving as oil trades above $100 per barrel, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Monday.Iranian and US blockades have shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the key global energy corridor largely inactive, the analysis said.Only a small number of vessels, mainly tied to Iran, are transiting as most operators avoid the route after last week's escalation, according to the analysis.Iranian gunboats fired on ships while US forces seized two oil tankers last week, sharply increasing risks and reducing traffic through the strait, the analysis said.Three Iran-linked vessels moved out of the Persian Gulf through the strait Monday morning, with no ships entering during the same period, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.Two bulk carriers and one liquefied petroleum gas tanker linked to Tehran exited the Gulf on Monday, extending a period of limited shipping activity, the analysis said.Only a handful of vessels departed Sunday, including an Iran-linked fuel tanker, a bulk carrier, and two regional cargo ships, while a China-linked fuel tanker entered the Gulf, the analysis added.Several Iran-linked vessels remained near the Gulf of Oman after exiting, leaving uncertainty about whether they paused for regional stops or were delayed by the US naval blockade, the analysis said.Ships continuing transit used a narrow northern corridor near Larak and Qeshm islands, a route approved by Iranian authorities for limited passage.The US blockade is prompting vessels to switch off tracking signals, reducing visibility and making it harder to measure actual traffic volumes, according to the analysis.Limited tracking data may lead to higher reported ship numbers later when vessels reappear outside risky areas, showing gaps in real-time monitoring, the analysis noted.Even before recent restrictions, Iran-linked vessels often disabled tracking near Hormuz and reactivated signals near the Strait of Malacca about 13 days from Kharg Island, the analysis said.
Mining & Metals
Deutsche Bank Sees USD/CAD at 1.25 at End 2028 From Current 1.37
Deutsche Bank said it sees USD/CAD at 1.25 at the end of 2028 from the current 1.37 level.At the end of this year, USD/CAD the bank's forecast is for 1.33, while it's 1.27 at the end of 2027 as the Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US dollar (USD).
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US Markets
Oil Prices Rise Amid US-Iran Stalemate
Crude oil prices rose Monday as US-Iran talks appeared to have stalled, even as Tehran reportedly offered a new proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude futures were last up 2.4% at $96.64 per barrel. Brent advanced 3.2% to $108.73.Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi visited Pakistan twice over the weekend, while President Donald Trump called off US officials' previously announced trip to Islamabad.Iran has submitted a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and delay talks on uranium enrichment, Axios reported, citing a US official and two other sources.Uranium enrichment and Iran's control of the crucial waterway have been key sticking points during talks between between Washington and Tehran.A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire between the US and Iran paused American and Israeli strikes on Tehran, but there's no framework yet for a long-lasting peace deal."Oil is trading stronger this morning after attempts to get US-Iran peace talks back on track broke down, erasing hopes for a resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon," ING Bank Head of Commodities Strategy said in a note on Monday. "The lack of progress means the market is tightening every day, requiring oil prices to reprice at higher levels."