-- 瑞银表示,尽管加拿大央行周一发布的两项第一季度调查大多是在近期中东紧张局势升级之前进行的,但两项调查均显示市场情绪有所改善,预期贸易紧张局势的影响将会减弱。 瑞银指出,加拿大央行在常规调查之外,还针对企业(BOS)和消费者(CSCE)进行了特别调查,这些调查是在中东战争爆发后进行的。瑞银在一份致客户的报告中写道,调查结果显示,消费者预期此次冲击将抑制经济增长并推高通胀。 瑞银表示,对于企业而言,尽管预期能源价格冲击将推高投入成本,但它们似乎也意识到,由于需求疲软和竞争加剧导致定价权有限,它们能够将成本上涨转嫁给消费者的程度有限。 瑞银指出,在第一轮调查数据收集完成后,加拿大央行发布了一份关于中东战争影响的专题报告。加拿大央行选取了20家企业进行调查,发现大多数企业预计投入成本将上涨,特别是燃料、货运、化肥以及加元(CAD或loonie)汇率波动带来的成本上涨。在中东冲突爆发后,企业被问及未来一年和两年的通胀预期时,通胀预期均有所上调,而五年预期受到的影响则较为温和。“尽管企业预期投入成本上涨,但受访企业普遍意识到,鉴于加拿大经济需求疲软、消费者预算紧张、竞争加剧以及定价能力普遍较弱,他们无法将这些成本上涨完全转嫁给消费者。” 在《加拿大消费者预期调查》(CSCE)中,加拿大央行还进一步阐述了家庭如何应对冲突带来的不确定性。瑞银集团补充道,调查发现,21%的受访者取消或推迟了旅行,主要原因是旅行成本上涨;另有28%的受访者推迟或减少了其他主要支出。 瑞银指出,BOS还强调,由于汽油价格上涨,各公司认为家庭可能会减少可自由支配的支出,从而给家庭资产负债表带来压力。
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