-- 瑞銀表示,儘管加拿大央行週一發布的兩項第一季調查大多是在近期中東緊張局勢升級之前進行的,但兩項調查均顯示市場情緒有所改善,預期貿易緊張局勢的影響將會減弱。 瑞銀指出,加拿大央行在常規調查之外,也針對企業(BOS)和消費者(CSCE)進行了特別調查,這些調查是在中東戰爭爆發後進行的。瑞銀在致客戶的報告中寫道,調查結果顯示,消費者預期此次衝擊將抑制經濟成長並推高通膨。 瑞銀表示,對於企業而言,儘管預期能源價格衝擊將推高投入成本,但它們似乎也意識到,由於需求疲軟和競爭加劇導致定價權有限,它們能夠將成本上漲轉嫁給消費者的程度有限。 瑞銀指出,在第一輪調查資料收集完成後,加拿大央行發布了一份關於中東戰爭影響的專題報告。加拿大央行選取了20家企業進行調查,發現大多數企業預計投入成本將上漲,特別是燃料、貨運、化肥以及加幣(CAD或loonie)匯率波動帶來的成本上漲。在中東衝突爆發後,企業被問及未來一年和兩年的通膨預期時,通膨預期均有所上調,而五年預期受到的影響則較為溫和。 “儘管企業預期投入成本上漲,但受訪企業普遍意識到,鑑於加拿大經濟需求疲軟、消費者預算緊張、競爭加劇以及定價能力普遍較弱,他們無法將這些成本上漲完全轉嫁給消費者。” 在《加拿大消費者預期調查》(CSCE)中,加拿大央行也進一步闡述了家庭如何應對衝突帶來的不確定性。瑞銀集團補充道,調查發現,21%的受訪者取消或推遲了旅行,主要原因是旅行成本上漲;另有28%的受訪者推遲或減少了其他主要支出。 瑞銀指出,BOS也強調,由於汽油價格上漲,各公司認為家庭可能會減少可自由支配的支出,進而對家庭資產負債表造成壓力。
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