-- 週四，瑞士股市指數再次下跌，收跌1.11%。投資人在密切關注中東地緣政治局勢發展的同時，也消化了最新一批企業財報和經濟數據。 瑞士國家銀行（SNBN.SW）數據顯示，4月瑞士外匯存底從3月修正後的7,210億瑞士法郎降至7,157.3億瑞士法郎。就業方面，政府數據顯示，4月瑞士失業率從上月的3.1%小幅下降至3%。 地緣政治方面，由瑞士聯邦外交部國務卿亞歷山大·法塞爾率領的瑞士代表團在華盛頓會見了美國副國務卿，會談重點討論了當前的地緣政治局勢、雙邊經濟合作、創新以及面向未來的議題。 在企業新聞方面，瑞士電信集團Swisscom (SCMN.SW)、旅遊零售商Avolta (AVOL.SW)和再保險巨頭瑞士再保險公司(SREN.SW)等瑞士上市公司發布了獲利更新。 受財產及意外傷害再保險部門營收下降及公司持續退出iptiQ業務的影響，瑞士再保險公司股價收盤下跌3.19%。該公司公佈第一季集團保險收入為100.3億美元，低於去年同期的104.1億美元。相比之下，集團淨利潤年增19%。 加拿大皇家銀行資本市場（RBC Capital Markets）在一份簡報中指出：「瑞士再保險公司第一季淨利潤為15.13億美元，比公司此前公佈的11.93億美元預期高出27%，但業績品質參差不齊——幾乎完全得益於自然災害損失低於季度預算67%，以及財產險再保險業務約12個百分點的折現收益（2025年第一季約為8個百分點），儘管其中包含了為應對伊朗戰爭影響而增加的4億美元準備金。 同時，羅氏（RO.SW）同意收購美國公司PathAI，此次合併交易將增強其數位病理學產品組合。這家瑞士製藥巨頭將支付7.5億美元的首付款，並在達成里程碑後支付3億美元，預計交易將於下半年完成。截至當日收盤，羅氏股價下跌1.39%。
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Commodities
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Pushing Oil Market Toward Rationing, Wells Fargo Says
The global oil market is moving toward physical shortages and possible demand rationing within the current quarter if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, Darrell Cronk, President of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in a Tuesday note.Cronk estimates cumulative supply losses tied to the conflict and partial closure of the key shipping route have reached about 600 million barrels as of early May. The disruption reflects not only delayed shipments, but also production effectively removed from the system through shut-ins, damage, and deferred output.With inventories and floating storage already significantly reduced, the market has limited remaining capacity to absorb additional shocks. If the strait does not reopen soon, the system may require demand destruction of 4 to 5 million barrels per day within weeks to restore balance.Supply disruptions are expected to take roughly 30 days to fully transmit through the system, meaning physical shortages at the consumer level could lag the initial shock.The most immediate stress is expected in natural gas and in intermediate- and medium-sour crude grades. Downstream impacts would likely emerge first in refined products, particularly diesel and jet fuel, before crude scarcity becomes visible to end users.A likely sequence of disruption would begin with petrochemicals and LPG, followed by diesel, affecting freight, agriculture, and industrial activity, and then jet fuel, which would constrain airline capacity and broader mobility.Import-dependent emerging markets are expected to experience the earliest strain, followed by Europe and other developed regions. Potential policy responses could include fuel allocation systems, airline capacity limits, and emergency consumption controls if shortages intensify.The US is partially insulated due to strong domestic production and Canadian pipeline imports, but global pricing would still transmit higher fuel costs domestically. Elevated energy prices could add to inflation pressures heading into the summer driving season and complicate interest rate expectations.Cronk also highlighted longer-term structural risks, noting that global energy supply chains have become less redundant and more vulnerable than widely assumed. It warned that prolonged disruption to infrastructure in the region could extend recovery timelines well beyond past oil shocks, even if geopolitical tensions ease.
Research
Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold On Shares Of Solventum Corporation
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lower our 12-month price target by $6 to $76, reflecting an 11.6x multiple of our 2026 EPS estimate, in line with the 11.6x historical forward average since spin-off from 3M in 2024. We raise our 2026 EPS estimate to $6.57 from $6.46 and lower our 2027 estimate by $0.03 to $7.03. We think SOLV continues to demonstrate progress with the separation from 3M, having exited over 50% of the transition service agreements with a target to exit over 90% by year-end. In addition, over 75% of system applications have been migrated, according to Q1 earnings commentary. The company maintained the $100M-$120M estimate of tariff headwinds against 2026 earnings. However, this estimate was made based on tariff dynamics prior to the U.S. Supreme Court's recent ruling against the IIEPA tariffs, adding some uncertainty to SOLV's near-term financial outlook, in our view, as the company awaits more information about potential refund dynamics.
$SOLV
International
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for May 7
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 83,387 layoff intentions in April, up from 60,620 in March, but down from 105,441 a year ago.The largest layoff count in April was in the technology sector, which accounted for 33,361 of those intentions, with increased use of artificial intelligence with the most cited reason for layoffs.The New York Fed's inflation expectations survey for April showed an increase in inflation expectations and uncertainty for the next year.Nonfarm productivity rose by 0.8% in Q1 after a 1.6% gain in Q4, reflecting slower output growth and a rebound in hours worked. Released at the same time, unit labor costs rose by 2.3% after a 4.6% gain, with the slower pace of productivity growth only partially offsetting a much slower pace of compensation growth.Construction spending rose by 0.6% in March after a 0.2% decline in February. Private residential construction rose by 1.7%, with single-family construction up 2.7%, multi-family construction up 0.3% and remodeling activity up 0.9%.Private nonresidential building fell by 0.2% and public construction declined by 0.2%.Consumer credit usage jumped by $24.8 billion in March after an $8.9 billion gain in February, with revolving credit use and nonrevolving credit use both rising at a faster rate than in the previous month.Initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 200,000 in the week ended May 2, but the four-week moving average fell by 4,500 to 203,250, a second straight decrease.Insured claims declined by 10,000 to 1.766 million in the week ended April 25.Natural gas stocks rose by 63 billion cubic feet to 2.205 trillion cubic feet in the week ended May 1, up 3.5% from a year earlier and 6.7% higher than the seasonal average for the current week over the previous five years.The Q2 GDP nowcast estimate from the Atlanta Fed is for a 3.7% gain, unrevised from the previous estimate.