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澳洲央行以近乎全票通過再次調高關鍵利率

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-- 持續高企的通膨和大幅上漲的燃料價格促使澳洲央行週二將現金利率再次上調25個基點至4.35%,這是今年以來第三次提高借貸成本。 澳洲儲備銀行表示,通膨“在中東衝突爆發前就已經過高”,而且由於近期燃油及相關大宗商品價格飆升,通膨率可能在更長時間內維持在2%至3%的目標區間之上。 此次利率決定符合市場預期,先前一週公佈的截至3月份的12個月消費者物價指數(CPI)為4.6%,較2月份的3.7%年化率大幅上升。 央行表示:“燃油價格上漲加劇了通膨,有跡象表明,這可能會對更廣泛的商品和服務價格產生連鎖反應。”央行預計,今年失業率將“略有上升”,同時家庭和企業支出也將放緩。 週二的決定幾乎全票通過,八位政策制定者投票贊成升息,只有一位投票支持維持利率在4.1%不變。 3月的上一次政策會議競爭更為激烈,五位議員投票贊成升息,四位議員投票支持維持利率不變。 根據其基準預測(假設中東衝突迅速解決且燃料價格下降),央行預計到年底國內經濟成長將放緩至1.3%。然而,央行也警告稱,通膨高於預期、經濟活動低於預期的情況也可能發生。 央行總裁米歇爾布洛克在政策會議後的記者會上表示,即使美伊衝突迅速解決,影響仍將持續到年底。她補充說,由此引發的石油衝擊將加劇該國的住房危機。 澳新銀行表示,央行會後聲明的語調比預期更為鷹派。 澳新銀行表示:“雖然會後聲明指出董事會‘三次上調現金利率’,但並沒有像我們預期的那樣,明確表示6月份會暫停加息。”

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