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澳洲儲備銀行將現金利率調高25個基點至4.35%。

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-- 澳洲儲備銀行(RBA)週二發布聲明稱,已決定將官方現金利率上調25個基點至4.35%。 該行表示,通膨在2025年下半年顯著上升,2026年初以來的資訊證實,部分通膨上升反映了產能壓力增加。 澳洲儲備銀行指出,中東衝突已導致燃料及相關大宗商品價格大幅上漲,加劇了通膨,初步跡象表明,許多面臨成本壓力的企業正在尋求提高商品和服務價格。 聲明補充道,澳儲行的基本預測假設衝突很快得到解決,燃料價格下降,預計2月份潛在通膨率將高於預期,隨後隨著需求成長放緩和產能壓力因利率上升而緩解,通膨率將有所下降。 澳洲儲備銀行表示,今年金融環境趨緊,貨幣市場利率、政府公債殖利率和匯率均上升,但家庭和企業仍能方便取得信貸。 澳洲儲備銀行表示,持續時間更長或衝突程度更嚴重的情況可能進一步推高全球能源價格,推高短期通膨,並可能將更高的價格納入長期通膨預期。同時,更高的價格和持續的不確定性也可能對澳洲主要貿易夥伴和國內的經濟成長構成壓力。 聲明指出,更高的燃料價格加劇了通膨,並有跡象表明,在2026年初以來已出現高通膨(反映出產能壓力)的基礎上,更廣泛的商品和服務價格可能受到第二輪衝擊。 鑑於這些因素,澳洲儲備銀行表示,董事會評估認為,通膨可能在一段時間內保持在目標水平以上,且風險偏向上行,因此升息是合適的。最終,八名成員投票贊成提高現金利率,一名成員投票贊成維持利率在4.1%不變。

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