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澳洲主要經濟指數3月轉為負值

-- 受利率上升和波斯灣衝突引發的全球能源衝擊的影響,澳洲一項主要經濟指數在3月轉為負值。西太平洋銀行旗下的西太平洋經濟研究所(Westpac Economics)報告稱,該指數在3月出現負成長。 西太平洋銀行週三發布報告稱:“西太平洋銀行-墨爾本研究所領先指標的六個月年化增長率(該指標反映了未來三到九個月經濟活動相對於趨勢的可能增速)從2月份的0.05%降至3月份的-0.13%。” 西太平洋經濟研究所表示:“截至3月份,該領先經濟指數已從去年10月份的0.31%下降了0.44%。這一數據清晰地顯示了利率環境變化和中東衝突引發的全球能源衝擊帶來的拖累。” 西太平洋銀行經濟研究部指出,3月領先指標的最大拖累因素是消費者信心大幅下滑、「澳洲股市暴跌」以及「短期利率走高導致殖利率差收窄」。 相較之下,西太平洋銀行經濟研究部解釋說,大宗商品價格上漲和住宅審批(房屋開工許可)數量增加在一定程度上抵消了這些拖累因素。 西太平洋銀行經濟研究部表示,澳洲儲備銀行(RBA)將於5月4日至5日召開下次會議,儘管經濟前景略顯黯淡,但為了應對物價上漲,RBA可能會再次升息。 RBA在2月和3月都提高了利率,目前利率水準為4.1%。 西太平洋銀行經濟研究部表示,在RBA的下次會議上,對通膨的擔憂將超過對經濟成長乏力的擔憂。 該經濟研究機構表示:“因此,我們預計RBA將在5月份再次將現金利率提高25個基點,並且在接下來的幾個月裡可能會進一步加息。”

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