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澳新银行预计新西兰储备银行将官方现金利率上调至3%,并计划在7月、9月和10月分别加息。

-- 根据澳新银行研究部周一发布的报告,新西兰储备银行(RBNZ)预计将在7月、9月和10月连续三次上调官方现金利率,每次上调25个基点,将政策利率推至3%。 央行可能会认为,只要官方现金利率不被视为紧缩性利率,那么之后加息的风险就大于过早加息的风险。 分析师指出,后续的货币政策决定也可能是降息,或者官方现金利率“甚至可能达不到3%”。 油价和燃料供应前景高度不确定;与此同时,对中期通胀的影响也难以预测。经济的需求侧和供给侧都处于波动之中。

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