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澳新银行研究称,新西兰最新商业信心指数对官方现金利率预测没有影响。

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-- 新西兰经济研究所 (NZIER) 第一季度商业信心调查结果喜忧参半,澳新银行 (ANZ) 在周二发布的一份报告中指出,该调查结果对澳新银行此前预测的新西兰官方现金利率风险并无具体影响。 澳新银行表示,尽管调查显示商业信心显著下降,招聘和投资意愿恶化,通胀指标有所上升,但本季度过去的经济活动保持稳定,产能指标也表明产出缺口略有收窄。 澳新银行指出,由于调查问卷的填写时间跨度为整个三月,因此该调查反映的是中东冲突初期阶段的商业情绪。调查中衡量国内生产总值 (GDP) 的最佳指标——已报告的过去贸易活动——表现相对更为积极。 澳新银行表示:“尽管如此,第一季度其他经济活动指标表现疲软,前瞻性指标也不容乐观,因此我们不会急于上调 GDP 预测。” 报告还指出,最新调查显示,有经验的就业人员数量下降,未来就业意愿也大幅下滑,这表明就业市场刚刚出现的复苏势头已经停滞。

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