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澳新銀行研究稱,紐西蘭最新商業信心指數對官方現金利率預測沒有影響。

-- 紐西蘭經濟研究所 (NZIER) 第一季度商業信心調查結果喜憂參半,澳新銀行 (ANZ) 在周二發布的一份報告中指出,該調查結果對澳新銀行先前預測的新西蘭官方現金利率風險並無具體影響。 澳新銀行表示,儘管調查顯示商業信心顯著下降,招聘和投資意願惡化,通膨指標有所上升,但本季過去的經濟活動保持穩定,產能指標也顯示產出缺口略有收窄。 澳新銀行指出,由於問卷的填寫時間跨度為整個三月,因此調查反映的是中東衝突初期階段的商業情緒。調查中衡量國內生產毛額 (GDP) 的最佳指標——已報告的過去貿易活動——表現相對更為積極。 澳新銀行表示:“儘管如此,第一季其他經濟活動指標表現疲軟,前瞻性指標也不樂觀,因此我們不會急於上調 GDP 預測。” 報告也指出,最新調查顯示,有經驗的就業人員數量下降,未來就業意願也大幅下滑,顯示就業市場剛出現的復甦動能已經停滯。

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