-- 由于中东地区紧张局势再度升级，包括有报道称德黑兰附近出现军事活动，以及人们对霍尔木兹海峡可能中断的担忧加剧，油价飙升，澳大利亚股市周五预计将下跌。 由于以色列和黎巴嫩停火协议能否延长以及黎巴嫩南部持续冲突的不确定性，整体风险情绪也承压。 隔夜，标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均下跌0.4%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.9%。 宏观经济方面，投资者正密切关注下周公布的澳大利亚消费者价格指数报告。 企业新闻方面，纽蒙特矿业公司（ASX：NEM）周五公布，第一季度调整后每股收益为2.90澳元，营收为73.1亿澳元，而去年同期调整后每股收益为1.25澳元，营收为50.1亿澳元。 福特斯克（ASX：FMG）公布，截至3月31日的季度，铁矿石总出货量为4840万湿吨，高于去年同期的4610万湿吨。 澳大利亚基准股指周四下跌0.6%，或50.2点，收于8793.40点。
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3:00 Monday vs 3:00 Friday2yr 100-04 vs 100-05; 3.799% vs 3.744%5yr 99-21+ vs 99-25+; 3.947% vs 3.918%10yr 98-10+ vs 98-17; 4.335% vs 4.308%30yr 96-31+ vs 97-14; 4.941% vs 4.914%2/10 53.307 bps vs 53.245 bps5/30 99.249 bps vs 99.402 bps
Australia
Booking Offers Compelling Entry Point as Focus Shifts Back to Fundamentals, Oppenheimer Says
Booking (BKNG) is offering a compelling entry point for patient investors as focus shifts back to fundamentals amid geopolitical tensions, Oppenheimer said, with analysts highlighting attractive valuation and resilient travel demand supporting the outlook.The brokerage said in a Sunday note that shares have underperformed peers since the Iran conflict, reflecting higher Middle East exposure and Asia/Europe sensitivity to oil supply.Oppenheimer said airline commentary and third-party traffic checks suggest solid underlying demand, pointing to upside versus Q1 nights guidance of more than 7%. However, geopolitical tensions could still weigh on the outlook relative to underlying trends.Booking has also outperformed the S&P since OpenAI paused retail instant checkout, supporting the view that large travel platforms remain central in the evolving AI-driven travel ecosystem, according to the note.The company is scheduled to report its Q1 results Tuesday after market close.Oppenheimer maintained its outperform rating on the stock with a price target of $240.Price: $179.23, Change: $-1.05, Percent Change: -0.58%
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Commodities
US Oil Update: Crude Gains 2% on Stalled US-Iran Talks, Hormuz Blockade
Crude oil futures climbed in midday trading on Monday as efforts to resume US-Iran peace talks appear to have stalled, with escalating tensions over the Strait of Hormuz keeping prices elevated.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 2.31% to $96.58 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 3.28% to $108.85/bbl.Saxo Bank strategists said crude is set to grind higher as Hormuz remains effectively closed, extending disruptions across the Middle East and tightening the availability of critical commodities.On Monday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reportedly said that Tehran was reviewing President Trump's request for negotiations. Araghchi also met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday to discuss the conflict as negotiations between the sides appear to have stalled.His visit follows a weekend of talks in Pakistan and Oman, which have both acted as mediators in the negotiations between Tehran and Washington.Putin reportedly told Araghchi that Russia would "do everything that serves your interests, the interests of all the people of the region, so that peace can be achieved as soon as possible"."Brent crude trades at a three-week high as efforts to revive peace talks have stalled, with an Iranian proposal reportedly calling for nuclear negotiations to be postponed to a later stage," Saxo Bank analysts said.Meanwhile, Trump canceled a planned trip by US peace envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan as the Iranian leadership reiterates that Tehran won't negotiate if it's being threatened. President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country won't enter "imposed negotiations under threats or blockade," according to media reports.ING strategists said the lack of progress means the market is tightening every day, requiring oil prices to reprice at higher levels, as there is little alternative to fill about 13 million b/d of the shortfall.The US-Israeli alliance and Iran have mostly observed a ceasefire since early April, but the double blockade of the Hormuz has ground vessel traffic through the strategic waterway to near zero."With US sanctions tightening and military interceptions continuing, markets remain highly sensitive to any signs of diplomatic progress or further escalation," Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said.Over the weekend, the US Central Command said its forces were continuing to implement the blockade, preventing vessels from entering or leaving Iranian waters. "American forces have directed 38 ships to turn around, or return to port," Centcom said in a post on X Sunday.