-- 週二,原油價格延續漲勢,布蘭特原油期貨價格徘徊在三週高點上方,市場對伊朗提出的新和平方案仍持懷疑態度。 布蘭特原油期貨合約上漲2.3%,至每桶110.72美元,創下4月7日以來的最高水準。 穆爾班原油4月27日收在每桶104.19美元,截至發稿時已停止交易。 儘管有報導稱,德黑蘭提出以重新開放霍爾木茲海峽為條件,換取美國解除海上封鎖,但德國商業銀行的分析師指出,在經歷了多次虛假消息後,市場對這類說法「正在失去信心」。 盛寶銀行的分析師表示:“美伊和平談判仍處於僵局,重啟談判的努力陷入停滯。據報道,伊朗週末向美國提出了重新開放霍爾木茲海峽的方案,白宮證實川普總統的國家安全團隊正在討論該方案。” 美國主導的封鎖對伊朗的實際影響日益顯著。 Kpler的數據顯示,伊朗石油出口量暴跌70%,從3月的每日平均185萬桶驟降至僅56.7萬桶。 據估計,伊朗的儲油設施剩餘容量不到22天,這意味著到5月中旬,伊朗將面臨高達每日150萬桶的強制減產。 週一,兩艘與伊朗有關的超級油輪「蒂法尼號」和「菲尼克斯號」在斯里蘭卡附近被美軍攔截後,轉向東行,遠離封鎖線,這進一步加劇了供應削減的可能性。 加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的策略師指出,展望未來,全球消費者面臨「殘酷夏季」的可能性越來越大。 RBC分析師警告稱,這場已持續三個月的衝突引發了現代史上最大的供應衝擊,導致近10億桶原油和成品油供應中斷。 即便外交上取得突破,專家也警告說,基礎設施和物流的破壞將導致中東油氣產量未來緩慢復甦,從而確保高油價和庫存緊張的情況持續存在。
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