-- 在週三盤後交易中，歐洲、中東和非洲地區原油期貨價格上漲，原因是霍爾木茲海峽的雙重封鎖以及川普總統對伊朗日益強硬的言論加劇了人們對全球能源供應長期衝擊的擔憂。 布蘭特原油期貨上漲7.13%，至每桶119.19美元；穆爾班原油期貨上漲2.44%，至每桶109.31美元。 盛寶銀行策略師週三在一份報告中指出：“川普總統已指示助手準備對伊朗實施長期封鎖，以高風險的方式打擊伊朗政權的財政，迫使伊朗放棄其核計劃。” 據報道，川普表示，他將維持對伊朗的海上封鎖，直到德黑蘭同意達成核協議。他也指出，封鎖比轟炸更有效。美國總統週三威脅伊朗，稱該國「最好盡快醒悟」。 「伊朗根本就沒辦法達成協議。他們不知道如何簽署無核協議。他們最好趕緊醒悟過來！」川普在Truth Social上發文說。 旨在結束中東衝突的第二輪美伊會談近日陷入僵局，雙方在談判中均拒絕讓步，德黑蘭方面試圖將霍爾木茲海峽問題與其核計劃分開。 三菱日聯金融集團（MUFG）研究分析師金秀珍（Soojin Kim）表示，由於市場關注美伊和平談判陷入僵局以及霍爾木茲海峽持續近乎關閉，原油價格依然居高不下。 有報告指出伊朗原油儲存空間即將耗盡，美國對伊朗的海上封鎖似乎正在給伊朗施加壓力，這可能會加速伊朗的減產。 美國財政部長貝森特表示，伊朗的主要石油出口碼頭哈爾克島的儲存能力已接近飽和，這可能迫使伊朗政府減少原油產量，並對伊朗的石油基礎設施造成損害。 金表示：“伊朗也面臨日益嚴峻的存儲壓力，這可能迫使其進一步減產，與此同時，美國正持續收緊對與伊朗石油相關的中國煉油企業的製裁。” 金還表示，持續不斷的中東衝突已經引發了更廣泛的區域性變化，包括阿聯酋決定下個月退出歐佩克。 荷蘭國際集團(ING)的策略師表示：「阿聯酋選擇在這個時候退出歐佩克是經過深思熟慮的。」他們補充說，在供應嚴重中斷的時期宣布退出，可以最大限度地減少對市場的影響。 在供應方面，美國已經開始出現供應緊張的跡象。美國能源資訊署(EIA)的最新數據顯示，截至4月24日當週，美國原油庫存下降620萬桶，至4.595億桶。
Related Articles
Australia
Marathon Petroleum Keeps Quarterly Dividend at $1 a Share, Payable June 10 to Holders of Record May 20
Price: $240.53, Change: $+7.94, Percent Change: +3.41%
$MPC
International
Fed Chair Powell Says He Will Remain as Governor for Period of Time After Chair Term Ends
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday at a press conference that he will remain on the Federal Reserve board for a period of time after his term as chair ends on May 15, noting the recent attacks on the Fed and saying that "the things that have happened really in the last three months I think left me no choice but to stay until I see them through at least that long."An investigation into Powell's actions as chair during the remodeling of headquarters at the Fed was halted by the Department of Justice, but it could be reopened if the Fed's inspector general finds wrongdoing, providing uncertainty."I have said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality and I stand by that," Powell said. "I am encouraged by recent developments, and I am watching the remaining steps in this process carefully."Powell said that his decision to remain on board has nothing to do with political comments, but rather his concern about the recent attack on the Fed by the Trump administration."After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as governor for a period of time to be determined," Powell said. "I plan to keep a low profile as a governor. There is only one chair of the Federal Reserve.""I will leave when I think it's appropriate to do so," he added.At the meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain its target rate at a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, but there were dissents in favor of both a lowering of the policy rate by one member and in favor of eliminating the bias toward easing in the statement by three members.
Oil & Energy
UAE Pushes for Greater Control Over Oil Output, Limited Near-Term Market Impact, RBC Says
The UAE's decision to leave OPEC is unlikely to disrupt oil markets in the near term, but points to a broader strategic realignment as the Gulf producer seeks greater control over its output policy amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note on Tuesday.The UAE has for years pushed to monetize investments in expanding crude capacity and promoting its Murban benchmark, a strategy that has at times strained relations within OPEC.RBC analysts said disputes over production baselines, including a July 2021 standoff that delayed an agreement for nearly two weeks, underscored friction between the UAE and other members over output quotas.The analysts said the UAE's departure reflects a continuation of these tensions, as the country has consistently sought higher production targets. A subsequent push in 2023 to revise its baseline led to a complex redistribution of quotas, reducing allocations for some African producers.However, despite the policy shift, the UAE is not expected to significantly increase production beyond levels seen in early 2026 once the conflict subsides.The Gulf state has been operating close to its current capacity, and post-war reconstruction demands are likely to temper any rapid supply increases.UAE authorities, in a statement, said it would continue to bring additional barrels to market "in a gradual and measured manner," aligned with demand and prevailing conditions.RBC analysts said this suggests spare capacity within the global system will remain concentrated in Saudi Arabia for the foreseeable future.The move comes at a critical moment in the regional conflict with Iran, which has heightened concerns over energy security, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.The UAE has been among the most vocal Gulf states opposing any scenario in which Iran maintains influence over the passage, citing repeated drone and missile attacks on its territory.The country's increasingly assertive stance appears to align more closely with Israel than with some Gulf neighbors.RBC analysts expect closer cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Israel on energy security and critical infrastructure once the conflict ends, potentially including joint investments and expanded defense agreements in strategic areas such as the Red Sea.The analyst said the UAE's exit does not signal an imminent fragmentation of OPEC. With no immediate requirement for coordinated production cuts and many member states focused on rebuilding capacity after the conflict, the group is expected to remain broadly intact in the near term.