-- 週一,歐洲天然氣期貨價格上漲,因為美伊和平談判陷入僵局,全球能源市場的地緣政治風險持續高漲。 荷蘭TTF天然氣近月合約上漲0.95%,至每兆瓦時45.27歐元(53.13美元);英國NBP基準天然氣價格上漲0.94%,至每熱量單位111.62便士(1.51美元)。 此前,原定於週末在巴基斯坦舉行的美伊第二輪和平談判未能成行。 美國總統川普週六在Truth Social網站上發文,取消了特使史蒂夫·威特科夫及其女婿賈里德·庫什納的訪問計劃。川普表示,此行會“浪費太多時間”,並強調伊朗領導層內部存在“巨大的”內訌和混亂。 川普還表示,如果伊朗方面想談,“他們只需要打個電話”,這使得局勢完全沒有定論。 據霍爾木茲海峽監測機構稱,佔全球液化天然氣(LNG)運輸量五分之一的霍爾木茲海峽已連續第九週處於實際的關閉狀態。不過,海峽交通流量有所回升,過去24小時內有19艘船舶通過該海峽。 澳新銀行(ANZ)高級大宗商品策略師丹尼爾·海恩斯表示,由於海峽長期關閉,越來越多的買家正轉向現貨市場以「補充國內供應」。 海恩斯也指出,澳洲伊克西斯液化天然氣工廠可能發生的罷工可能會使供應情況進一步惡化。 週五,國際能源總署警告稱,卡達基礎設施受損可能導致液化天然氣(LNG)擴建項目至少延長兩年,並造成2026年至2030年間累計損失1,200億立方公尺潛在供應量。 同時,歐洲天然氣庫存仍處於低位,根據歐洲天然氣基礎設施協會(Gas Infrastructure Europe)的數據,目前庫存僅為產能的31.47%,而去年同期為38.14%。
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