-- 週二,歐洲天然氣期貨價格下跌,此前美國和伊朗將於週二在巴基斯坦伊斯蘭堡舉行第二輪會談。 荷蘭TTF近月基準天然氣期貨價格下跌2.25%,至每兆瓦時39.38歐元(46.33美元);英國NBP天然氣期貨價格下跌2.42%,至每熱量單位98.86便士(1.33美元)。 根據多家媒體報道,美國副總統萬斯將率領美國代表團前往巴基斯坦,而伊朗最高領袖哈梅內伊已授權伊朗談判代表參加第二輪會談。 然而,不確定性依然存在。美國總統川普在接受彭博電話採訪時表示,他「極不可能」延長原定於週三晚間到期的為期兩週的停火協議。 霍爾木茲海峽已連續第八週處於事實上的關閉狀態,但據霍爾木茲海峽監測機構稱,過去24小時內有16艘船隻通過,交通流量有所回升。 儘管如此,這一數字仍遠低於通常每日138艘船隻通過該海峽的平均值。英國聯合海事資訊中心繼續將該地區的威脅等級維持在「危急」等級。 專注於大宗商品的地緣政治策略家西里爾·維德斯霍芬表示,海峽的外交「正淪為一場政治角力」。他指出,伊朗的權力不再由國家掌控,而是由伊斯蘭革命衛隊控制,後者如今扮演平行政權的角色。 他表示:「任何忽視這種分裂局面的協議都可能立即失去意義。」他還補充說,航運公司、能源市場和保險公司已經感受到了這一點。 這對歐洲市場而言正值關鍵時刻。根據歐洲天然氣基礎設施協會(Gas Infrastructure Europe)的數據顯示,該地區的天然氣庫存已降至多年來的最低水平,僅30.40%,去年同期為36.74%。 同時,位於德州的黃金通道液化天然氣出口設施宣布,首艘油輪已抵達,裝載其首批超低溫天然氣。這為一直受供應緊張困擾的市場帶來了一絲緩解。
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