-- 周三,欧洲天然气期货价格下跌,此前美国总统特朗普表示,他将解除霍尔木兹海峡的封锁,市场对美伊可能举行第二轮和平谈判的乐观情绪日益高涨。 荷兰TTF近月合约下跌1.99%,至每兆瓦时42.50欧元(50.11美元);英国NBP期货下跌2.07%,至每热量单位106.50便士(1.43美元)。 特朗普周三在Truth Social网站上发帖称,在中国同意不向伊朗出售武器后,他将“永久”开放霍尔木兹海峡。他还补充说,这种情况“绝不会再次发生”。 此前,他周二在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示,伊朗战争“即将结束”,并补充说,德黑兰“非常渴望”达成协议。 特朗普还表示,在查尔斯国王预计本月晚些时候访问美国之前,与伊朗达成协议“很有可能”。 当天早些时候,特朗普告诉《纽约邮报》,美伊第二轮和平谈判“可能在未来两天内”在巴基斯坦首都举行。 与此同时,霍尔木兹海峡已连续第七周关闭,据霍尔木兹海峡监测机构称,过去24小时内仅有三艘船只通过。 近几周来,海峡长期中断导致亚洲液化天然气买家成为欧洲在替代供应竞标中的主要竞争对手。然而,据澳新银行高级大宗商品策略师丹尼尔·海恩斯称,大多数亚洲国家的进口量已降至2020年以来的最低水平。 海恩斯还指出,印度天然气公司和印度石油公司尚未就4月和5月的现货天然气采购进行任何招标,而中国3月份的天然气进口量也出现了类似的下降。 这些发展对欧洲市场来说是个好兆头,因为欧洲天然气基础设施协会(Gas Infrastructure Europe)的数据显示,欧洲天然气市场正以显著下降的库存水平进入补给季,目前库存仅为产能的29.55%,而去年同期为35.62%。 此外,天气预报也转为悲观,据欧盟极端天气预报中心(Severe Weather EU)预测,欧洲大部分地区夏季气温预计将高于往年平均水平。
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