-- 周一,伊朗再次关闭霍尔木兹海峡,理由是美国持续对伊朗实施海上封锁,受此影响,欧洲天然气期货价格上涨。 荷兰TTF近月合约上涨5.86%,至每兆瓦时41.04欧元(48.26美元);英国NBP期货上涨6.38%,至每热量单位103.31便士(1.38美元)。 尽管伊朗外长赛义德·阿巴斯·阿拉格奇宣布霍尔木兹海峡“在剩余停火期内完全开放”,但周末期间,途经这条重要水道的船只仍遭到袭击。 据BBC新闻报道,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军周六发表声明称,“任何船只不得离开其在波斯湾或阿曼海的锚地”。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周五在Truth Social网站上发文,对伊朗重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的决定表示欢迎,同时指出,对伊朗的封锁将继续,直至达成和平协议。 周日,美军拦截了一艘试图违反封锁进入港口的伊朗籍船只。据美国中央司令部称,该船已被美国海军陆战队登船,目前仍被美军扣押,这标志着冲突的重大升级。 与此同时,美伊第二轮谈判将于周二在巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡举行,为期两周的停火协议也将在同一时间到期。 霍尔木兹海峡已连续第八周关闭。据霍尔木兹海峡监测机构的数据显示,过去24小时内仅有6艘船只通过,与通常的日均138艘相比大幅下降。 据SEB Research首席大宗商品分析师比雅恩·希尔德罗普(Bjarne Schieldrop)称,市场押注冲突将迅速解决,但他警告说,海峡每关闭一天,“就意味着我们离可能出现的供应短缺和价格大幅上涨的局面更近一步”。 与此同时,据欧洲天然气基础设施协会(Gas Infrastructure Europe)的数据显示,欧洲天然气库存已大幅下降至30.20%,而去年同期为36.45%。 据阿格斯传媒(Argus Media)报道,由于库存跌至四年来的最低点,欧盟在本季天然气回注季面临严峻挑战,而全球供应趋紧更是雪上加霜。
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